LAST EXIT OFF THE HIGHWAY TO HELL A down September leading to an October bloodbath

September 24th 2016

 

One of my favorite people in Wall Street and a former boss, JLD used to say “I’d rather be lucky than smart” and that´s what happen to us in the last quarter. Just five traiding days after my last blog one stock of my Short list dropped 110 points, Priceline (PCLN). Now I don’t know about you but if I had a Short drop 110 points in 5 days, that´s $250,000 on 25 puts. I would have at least taken half the gain, if not all of it. That alone would have covered all the cost of my other puts, where 2 or 3 had 10 and 15 points gains all the other lost money but Net-Net we still would have had a great quarter.

In my last blog I said that one of my internal market indicators turned bullish (the new highs, new lows numbers) and that the Dow could see a new high and I also said if it breaks new highs on big volume, you should sell all puts. Not only did it not move higher on big volume but the higher it went, the smaller the daily volume totaled.

Volume actually decreased each day, never a good sign.

Don’t underestimate the value of internal market indicators, the new highs new lows indicator is now neutral.

Also, just remember the Dow is only 30 stocks. There is roughly 6 to 7 trillion dollars under management.

I am sure a small % of these Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds spend a large part of the trading day trying to move the Dow up, what they have got to lose.

I call these guys “The Dow 30 Video Game Boys”.

The same with the S and P futures, they almost always move higher overnight when the volume is small but as soon as the next trading day begins, they are hit to a more realistic price level.

The Dow is only 30 stocks, the S and P is 500 stocks.

The index to watch is the NYSE, it´s 3300 stocks and that index never hit a new high, in fact the best level it reached was almost 360 points lower than its high for the year.

You should still be buying puts and add GS and BIDU to the short list.

Oh! Talk about luck; I got an e-mail this week saying that Jim Chanos, the king of shorts and Enron fame, just put out his new best short idea, TESLA (TSLA) which has been on my shortlist.

I think zerohedge.com is one of the finest web sites out there. They recently wrote “There are over 40% fewer stocks listed in 2016, than in 1996” that may be the only reason this Bull market has lasted this long. That’s like twice as much money chasing half as many stocks. Does that make me bullish now? NO.

Because last year June 2015, when I said we were already in a recession, and a Bear market will begin. I was a lone voice. Since then the market have moved sideways and most stocks trend lower in a range bound market, as for the roughly 40% fewer stocks being listed.

To me it means they will be hit twice as hard in this Bear market as earnings continue to slide.

Well we didn’t See 13,000 Dow yet and that made me depressed for the last 3 months. I mean I´ve been wrong before, at least once, maybe twice but never for this long. One year wow!

When I am depressed I usually do one of three things:

First I’ll read some of my positive emails, one of my favorite is: “You know what I like about marketcallanastasi? He says the same thing everyone says, but 3 to 6 months before everyone else”.

Not this time. I called for a recession and Bear market; well I got the recession right.

The next thing I do is listen to Pink Floyd’s “Dark side of the moon” their music and only their music put me in a transcendental state and I think it is the combination of the slide guitar and organ, then when I heard “Comfortably numb” I said that´s perfect description of this market.

The last thing I do is work out, you know what?  I am going to go listen to more Pink Floyd.!!

Well I shouldn’t feel too depressed about Dow 13,000, we’ve had 4 good corrections in the last year and a half, and my readers made lots of money, that’s more than most Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds can say. Besides I like all the names of the people, money, managers, funds and banks that turned bearish 3 to 6 months after me, even Donald Trump. Wow!!!!!

Just thoughts:

I wonder how much buying power has been taken out of the economy from savers not making much on their money due to low interest rates over the last 6 or 7 years.

The SEC should check option trades in CMG the weeks before it crashed from 742 to 413, tainted foods in several different states, sounds like terrorist or short sellers to me. They should have done the same after the 911 twin tower attacks.

Follow the money, you might be surprised.

Trucking industry shipments fall off charts

K-Mart closing 64 more stores

Container ship companies beaching their boats and cutting them up for scrap metal, the business is dying

Fewer customers at all restaurants, you know? Americans don’t like to cook, things must be bad

Teenagers in poor cities selling sex for food

Tent cities popping up all across America for homeless people

Driving season is over, oil could see 30 again unless Russia and Saudis make a deal.

The list of good news I see is usually Bullshit.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) starting to lay off workers, a bellwether stock, in mining, farming and construction.

Sounds like a highway to hell to me.

Bullishness among traders hit an all-time high in august, meaning most shorts are covered. I am a seller, buy puts. It takes balls to go against the crowd.

I always felt that the rich will do anything and everything to protect their wealth, well they have, and we are still nowhere.

“Bulls make money, Bears make money but pigs get slaughtered”

This has been the most difficult year for trading that I can remember since my start on Wall St. in 1967, almost 50 years ago. I never thought I would live this long.

The best way to reach me is

marcello.anastasi@ymail.com

So long from  Peru.

NEXT STOP ON THE DOW IS 13,00o TO 14,000 THOUSAND

Sunday Nov 15^th

PCLN down -138 points on Monday Nov 9. But up +25 points the Friday before.

Some of my readers can´t believe they made 100 points in one day. PCLN has been on my list of stocks to Short or Buy puts on.

The next leg of the bear market began last week and may continue till the yearend tax selling period.

Buy the VIX and keep buying puts.

To those  readers who are  asking if we are getting close to a buying area in gold. The answer is NO. I don´t see a bottom until 850 or 900.

I am sorry to see one of my predictions come true. 3 months ago some of our military and politicians said ISIS was slowly being wiped out. I said: “No, they are just getting started to grow”

I think the events in Paris this weekend prove that I am sorry to say: “THESE HEARTBREAKING EVENTS are going to get BIGGER and more FREQUENT”.

I hope I am wrong.

I STILL HAVE A BAD FEELING. “My bad feeling is that the tipping point has been reached!”

January 27th 2015
But before I start, there are two things more important that I would like to talk about.
Today marks the 70th anniversary of Auschwitz and the other death camps. To me it marks the worst period in human history and shouldn’t be forgotten ever. It should stand as a constant reminder of how twisted the human mind can get.
“I ain’t no senators son, I ain’t not fortunate one”
There is something that is bothering me for some time now; I can’t keep it in anymore. I know I promised my two sons that I wouldn’t curse anymore in my blogs but sometimes, well.
“Boots on the grounds” when I hear this I want to cry then I want to throw out.
There are human feet in those boots, connected to human legs, connected to human torso with hands, arms and the head in these boots.
I beg you TV people, politicians and any other fucking idiots who uses these words. Please, forget this phrase. Please use the word “Troops or fighting men”.
They deserve better than that, a lot better than boots on the ground.
Thank you.
How bad is my bad feeling?, BAD, about Dow 15,000 BAD. For all of you who got “out of the pool” and into a 100% cash Thanksgiving week. Here is Game plan “A” Reinvest 20% at 16,000, 30% at 15,500 and 50% at 15,000. And naturally this is subject to change probably for the worst.
I am sorry is Dow 15,000 scares you but that may actually be too high.
If Russia and China do join together to destroy our dollar then 10,000 to 12,000 Dow could be possible.
Russia and China working together to kill our currency is my greatest fear. My second great fear is the Swiss movement which I thought was supposed to be a refined and precised like a Swiss watch unpegging is currency from the Euro, was more like a Three Stooges movie and I think there is a lot more bad stuff to come from this precised and refined movement.
Hey if you are worried about the US Dollar you can always buy Real Estate in Peru or probably anywhere in the world to protect your money
And if you have $20 million dollars lying around we are friendly with a Real Estate person who has a cooper and zinc mine for sale.
I call the mines here in Peru, triple deckers, you dig a little and you get zinc and cooper, you dig a little more you get gold and silver, dig even deeper and you hit oil.
In my last blog I wrote a negative article on Tesla comparing it to the Tucker. Hmm Tesla was at 2.25 at the time it recently traded around 190, some 35 points lower. I should have bought puts. Oh well that’s one for the should have, would have, could have account.
So, the IRS may have to delay tax refund payments. Hmmm, scary. Suppose they can’t pay them at all.
An old co-worker and friend of mine just retired December 25th Christmas day. He is probably one of the hardest working guys I have ever met in Wall Street: Barry Shenkman good luck and best wishes on this final chapter of life. I love you.
“What would you say if I sang a tune?” Joe Cocker, you and your music gave hours of happy entertainment. RIP.
Florida schools ban Bibles in classrooms to appease atheist and Satanist, the era of Antichrist is upon us. It all started in the 1970’s when the courts in California voted to take out “One nation under God from the pledge of allegiance. I want to thank all those educated asshole judges for ushering in the period of the Antichrist which is gaining strength almost daily.
ISIS is just warming up. It’s the beginning. Am I mad? You bet you fucking ass I am! Bring back God to the classroom and homes.
So Putin vows to slash the price of vodka, after he put all the Russians citizens in near bankruptcy and with runaway inflation about to come all because exceptions against his country as a result of his trying to invade Ukraine. I said it, in an early blog: You know Russia is going to invade Ukraine.
This week Russians tanks rolled into Ukraine. That’s an invasion to me.
Falling oil prices were not his fault, he should be happy he has something to sell.
He should replace the water in the drinking water system with 100% vodka, free of charge.
Cheers Putin!
PS The Market is ready to crash. Fall down go bum!

Dow 30 video game bad boys. Shame on you!. Monday Dec 1st. The Dam finally bursts . “If Santa Claus should fail to call Bears may come to broad and wall” . Russian Mafia. Will Tesla be the tucker auto of this century?. Water, water everywhere but not a drop to drink.

By the end of Thanksgiving week, all my people were totally out of the market. They know when I say “everybody out of the pool”; it means go to 100% cash. At that time, it was obvious to me that it was getting harder and harder for the “Dow 30 video Bad Boys” to paint the tape; the volume of down stocks vs. the volume of up stocks was getting greater and greater.

In my last blog written on Nov 19^th but not entered on wordpress.com, YouTube, twitter, Google until Nov 21^st  because it was my daughter’s birthday Nov 20^th  and I wanted to wait till that day passed so I could write a story about my memories of her growing up.

In that blog I mentioned that I thought the “Dow 30 video Bad Boys” were manipulating the Dow High frequency Traders, Flash Boys and recently laid off and possibly the Hedge Funds Crooked FX Traders.

the manipulation was obvious to me by the internals of the market on Nov 13^th which I said “I couldn’t swallow”

Well, on Monday Dec 1^st, the dam finally burst the tape painters ran out of the paint. They couldn’t support the Dow any longer. The down volume was almost 4 to 1 over up volume. But the real tipoff was the S and P 500 Down -14.12. That translates to a Dow down at least 140 to 160 points, not down 52.44.

It’s not secret, on any given day. Just multiply the S+P, up or down by 10 and more often than not.

It will tell you what the Dow is really doing, give or take a little. Try it for a while, you’ll be amazed at how often the S and P times 10 = the Dow.

Example- market (Lose Fri Dec 12, Dow Down -315, S and P 500 -33.

I’ve been watching this game for about 50 years now and no one can tell me anything different. Even the new lows are now out numbering the new highs. It’s not hard to keep track of these numbers. I just hit yahoo.com Finance; they do a pretty good job of giving you all the numbers and much more.

My friends, specially the “Oracles of Juniper Valley Park” often say, Frank why can’t we just buy and hold like Warren Buffet, instead of jumping in and jumping out of the market.

Warren Buffet is not a Buy and Hold guy; he is a buy for life guy. He holds stocks longer than most people live.

Let’s admit it, he is a genius. Do you think it’s  easy buying a stock and holding it for 30 or 40 years and feeling confident that that company will still be in business 50 years from now.

He is one of a kind, once in a lifetime phenomena. Hey, we got in the market over 4 ½  years ago and didn’t sell until this July, 6 month ago, called for an October Blood bath. Almost got it. Bought stocks back on the selloff, which paid off and most recently I asked “everyone to get out of the pool” the week before Thanksgiving. I only do what the market tells me to do.

Now you know how important market internals can be.

“If Santa Claus should fail to call Bears may come to broad and wall”

I don’t know the accuracy ratting on that theory but it must have worked enough times for people on Wall St. to still quote it.

It’s the Santa Claus Rally

Like I said over and over, I still think the economy will continue to do better but we are not out of the woods yet, malls are still folding, retail sales have slowed. The employment picture is brighter but wages are stagnant, financial engineering has gone as far as it can, the con summer is or almost is taped-out or will be after Christmas, car sales are great but that’s because the average car is more than 10 years old and when your monthly car repair bill are more than the monthly payment to buy a new car, you don’t have  much of a choice , plus dealers are giving cars away with subprime lending practices and with all this, not to mention geo-political risk, Ebola, and Isis . I just think the market is a little ahead of itself.

The Russian mafia

You know this guy Puttin has some pair of huevos (eggs) as they say in Peru.

Kruschev, he was a clown. I can still picture him at a United Nations meeting pounding his shoe on the table.

Puttin’s determined. Most of my working life I lived in Rego Park Queens NY and every day I would walk down 63^rd Drive to the E train to go to work. There were 3 or 4 Russian restaurants on 63^rd Drive and there still are 3 or 4 even today, naturally they were closed in the morning but coming home at nite they were open and more often than not, there was a bunch of Russians always all men, loudly arguing on the sidewalk. I mean heated arguments I always got the feeling there was more than just food cooking inside. These guys looked tough with their fortunes and assets tanking with the Russian ruble. I wouldn’t be surprised if they made an attempt on Puttin’s life unless he has included them on some end game benefits.

Will Tesla be the Tucker auto of this century?

Do you remember the Tucker? No. Do you remember the movie “The Tucker”?

I saw it with my son Greg, well the Tucker  was a car way ahead of its time and the Detroit car makers put up enough road-blocks to stop it from getting off the ground, not too unlike todays Tesla, plus if the price of oil stays down here or goes lower.

Americans are slow to change old habits specially habits they enjoy, like owning and driving muscle cars that go from 0 to 60 in 3 or 4 seconds and really sounds great.

I know how much Americans love their cars I know because I lost a lot of real estate and other toys that I enjoyed and the thing I miss the most and think of the most is my 1986 Corvette, in fact I keep a picture of it in my wallet till this day. The picture was taken with me and my youngest son Greg standing by it.

Water, water everywhere but not a drop to drink

I don’t know who said it, if you do please tell me.

Well, rising water levels offshore and lowering levels onshore. California thinks their drought will end soon ha! I don’t believe in Global Warming, it’s just a cycle. Do you know that they found dinosaur bones and fossil trees and leaves in the Artic where snow has melted and exposed these things?, it must have been very warm there at one time and the same time snow and ice are accumulating in other parts of the world. What I do think has happened , is that the earth has shifted its axis, a little bit North and a little bit East, making California now part of the desert and also causing the earth to move up and under a lowering jet-stream causing severe winters to occur further south in the US.

I think they should build desalinization plants in very town that is on the ocean in California. The plants don’t have to be right on the beach, just water pipeline in the ocean extending to the plant a mile in land. Hey! It beats drinking toilet water and having water wars.

Caution. 10% of my emails incoming and outgoing are not being transmitted. It’s an international problem.

Thank God I can finally stop smoking in a painless and happy way. Palm Beach Vapors is coming out with E cigarettes with cannabis oil. Wow!, who is going to want to smoke regular cigarettes with this available.

Sorry the company is not public, that’s the first thing I checked.

NASA claims they would find aliens within 20 years. Why does our government and their agencies that IRS, CIA, and other pools of idiots think that the citizens of this great country are stupid. Do you know how much money has been spent, covering up Roswell for decades? I always believe they existed and I know most Americans do also. If you don’t believe in aliens, just checked out the last 5 or 6 appearances of Harry Reid and listen to the things he said, out of this world.

Again I don’t got good grammar and I don’t got good spelling, plus my wife who is nice enough to type my blog, is Peruvian and don’t got good English and I don’t speak Spanish. Most of the time is the “I love Lucy Show” around here, with Lucy and Ricky yelling at each other and I love it.

THIS YEAR’S NEW HOT VIDEO GAME “THE DOW 30”

You know Russia is going to invade the Ukraine but my biggest worry is will cost Europe to crumble.

I can’t believe the amount of complacence existing in the market today.

Friday November 21^st

Be the first kid on your block to own the Dow 30 video game. On sale in most major retail stores, starting this thanksgiving holiday. Black Friday, Thursday, Saturday or Monday. Nothing is the same anymore. It’s not easy getting old, everything constantly changes and at a faster and faster rate.

Jiggling the Dow

I had a feeling this was going on, but I wasn’t certain until November 13 when the market closed. The Dow was up +40.59 at 17,652, the advancing issues or up stocks were 34%, the declining issues or down stocks were 62%. 4% unchanged.

The NYSE index was down -15.11 or 0.14% which roughly translate into down 30 points + on the Dow. That’s a 70 points difference on a day when there were 2 stocks down for every 1 stock up. That’s a little more than I can swallow. Just remember the Dow index is only 30 stocks. The NYSE is 3,220 stocks.

Everybody out of the pool.

The week before November 13, FX Traders around the world were fired for rigging.

I think they joined forces with the Flash Boys and High Frequency Traders. The up volume was -2,247, 283, 386.

I am telling my people to get out of the market totally.

The Dow is making new highs but the NYSE hasn’t reached its previous high yet.

Wait till these guys realize that you can make more money and faster in a down market. OH BOY!

No October blood bath

Only down about 10%. I was looking for down 15%. Just some blood. All in all is not a bad call.

We were long for over 4 years, got out.

Before the October break, bought stocks

Back at 20 to 30 and in a few cases 40% cheaper. This will be my last discussion on market internals. I would like to start talking about stock selection, options and technical analysis, www.etf.com a great website, had an article out last month saying that the market has been deteriorating since late June, just about the time I put out my sell signal. Everybody out until internals look better maybe during December lows.

Happy Birthday Joanna Banana!

“Am I wrong” yeah yeah yeah yeah, watch the video. The one from Africa, there are several versions, look for the one with elephants on the cover. We have 5 or 6 great American music radio stations here in Peru and between the 5 or 6 stations I can hear music from the 50’s up until todays music.

Latins love our music, when I was younger I couldn’t always catch the words in songs. I thought I had hearing problems until I heard everyone singing “looks like tomatoes” Barry Manilow. But today on You Tube they give you the lyrics. I even check lyrics on old songs to hear what I missed.

Music was always one of my passions. I love today’s music, the words, melody and rhythm. I give it a 90 for the beat. American Bandstand Phila, Penna. But the things that gets me the most about music is , no matter how old a song is when I hear it I immediately remember where I was, the person I was with, and the general feeling , good or bad, that come to my mind,  when that song was popular and naturally all the words.  I can’t remember 5 Spanish words from one day to the next. But I could remember most of the words of hundreds of songs, specially the good parts like “Am I wrong” yeah yeah yeah yeah. Now stay with me and this will all make sense.

I never celebrated my birthdays because I didn’t want to feel older but whenever November rolls around. I start to feel older because it’s my oldest child’s birthday, my beautiful daughter’s birthday. Every year I would call her on or near her birthday and say JoJo tell me slowly how old are you and I would all of a sudden, feel older. This November was especially bad. During the first few days of the month, 88.3 Radio Magica here in Peru played “Jack and Dianne” John Mellencamp. That was the first song my baby ever started singing as a teenager. “Oh yeah! Life goes on even after the thrill of living  is gone”. She sang a little off key.

I can still clearly picture her sitting on the bottom first or second step of the stairs in our living room. There in her blue jeans, she lived in her blue jeans, with her beautiful thick eyebrows just like the actress Ally Mc Graw. Life was changing for young women, no more secretarial school for typing and office skills. Now it was College and competing against men not just working for them.

So to encourage her, at night I would walk in her bedroom and while she was sleeping I would whisper in her ear: “JoJo you could be anything you want to be in life”.

It’s just not fair, time has robbed me. It steals from all of us. She doesn’t wear jeans anymore; she trimmed her eyebrows when she started working in wall St, I was so proud of her, my beautiful teenager is now 46 and she is more beautiful than ever. I still feel like I am 46 even though I am 71, just a lie of time. I guess it’s just not fair.

Happy Birthday Daddy’s beautiful teenager, I still see you that way. Don’t get older cause it makes me feel older. “Oh yeah life goes on”