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“Fake News”

Jun 6,2017
The biggest piece of “fake news” in 2016/2017 is the stock market and the fake earnings that moved the DOW to these scary levels. When I started on Wall St. In the mid 1960’s they called it cooking the books, a softer term in later years was creative accountings, since 2009 it was called financial engineering. It still all smells and looks like a lot of ENRONS to me. 2 or 3 weeks ago PRICELINE was down 110 points in one day, That’s a $250,000 plus gain on just 25 puts. Keep buying puts and the VIX.
~ My Email is Marcello.Anastasi@Ymail.com

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crisis, economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, SOTCK MARKET, Uncategorized

The good News is- The recession is over, The bad news is- !The depression has started!

 

This time QE did not trickle down to the working man. If you want to turn this economy around in 3 months give refunds back to the working man on the income taxes he paid last year.

 

On march 9th I wrote ITS OVER, that my VSI indicator was flashing red and I saw an Island Reversal on the charts, the after the president’s speech on march 1st, and to buy puts on our list of stocks to short and buy the VIX.

 

The Island reversal is a sign of exhaustions.

 

The number of retails store closings is getting bigger and I don’t believe is all due to amazon. What would happen if they started delivering burgers, chicken and pizza by Drones? And no one has mentioned all the jobs that will be lost.

 

If I had money I would wait until a mall was ready to foreclose or go bankrupt, buy it on the cheap and convert it into an apartment buildings. You already have large indoor and outdoor parking, just add heated swimming pools, kitchens and bedrooms.

 

Earnings on the 500 S and P stocks have gone nowhere in the last 3 years, but the market is up 33% in 3 years. Either this is the dumbest generation of investors I’ve seen in my 50 years of WALL ST., or I am getting to old for this game.

 

 Just thoughts..

 

Gasoline inventories Building to records levels the only place people are driving to is Walmart’s.

 

Even the upper middle class are shopping there.

 

Restaurants are dying, Broadway tickets sales are down, art sales down, expensive watch sales down and Miami and Manhattan condo sales are plunging.

 

My readers know how I feel about most of our political leaders. They are lying, cheating, stealing, Lowlife crooks, and most Americans feel the same.

 

This pizza gate story is gaining strength, if it turns out to be true it could destroy our country from the inside out.

Contact me at marcello.anastasi@ymail.com

 

 

 

 

 

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economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, SOTCK MARKET, Uncategorized

SHORT THEM AGAIN, LET´S GO FOR A HAT TRICK

Well they didn´t go to 13,000 yet but I think all the shorts are covered, again. You know you can make 5 to 10 times more, more money; 5 to 10 times faster being short in a Bear Market  than you can being long in a Bull Market.

I said that the first week last June was the start of a new Bear Market and that the next rally after a 2,000-point drop was a Bear Market rally, followed by a 3,000-point drop, and I think this last rally was also a Bear market trap. If it is, the next sell- off could be down 4,000 points, all toll, the shorts will have made 10,000 points on the Dow, but wait till we go to 13,000 Dow.

Remember, in Bull Markets you buy the dips, in Bear Markets you sell the rips. Easy game.

Let´s check our Short list:

OEX Down -120 pts+

PCLN Down – 450 pts

AMZN Up, lost money

IBM Down -50 pts

GOOG Up, lost money

TSLA Down – 180 pts

NFLX Down – 35 pts

AAPL Down – 35 pts

VIX Up 35 pts

I would buy puts on this same list- except AMZN, wait 2 days, they had great earnings- keep in mind when you go short buy puts. Because the most you can lose by buying puts is the price, you paid for the puts.

If you short a stock and it goes up, your loss can be unlimited. If you do short a stock, buy slightly out of money calls, this will limit your loss.

Being naked short you can lose the ranch, really. Ever since options started trading in the mid 1970´s I am shocked whenever I hear someone has lost a bundle of money, there are so many ways to protect yourself with options.

I think the e-mails I got from my readers, kind of sums-up how they are doing.

The first one is scary:

“Hey, Market Call Anastasi, if the Dow doesn’t go to 13,000 like you keep saying, one night you are going to see a few dark vans parked in front of your house and driveway with mean looking guys inside.”

Well, I live in Peru, that´s a long drive.

The next one I should have saved, printed and framed, he says:

“I don’t believe I made $ 500,000 on the 25 puts. I´m giddy laughing, I made a boat full of money on Priceline and I buy a boat, I mean a container ship. It is the first time I ever bought puts or an option.

I felt like that 70-year-old woman from Wisconsin who for the first time in her life, she bought one Lotto quick pick ticket and won the lottery the next day.   Who knows if I had listened to you about the rally only being a Bear Market trap I could have made 300 or 400 points instead of 200 points… Thanks Market Call Anastasi…”

The majority of the e-mails all said they were happy they sold all their stocks in June at the Bull Market top and that they made money buying puts.

As for the mean looking guys in the dark vans:

If you spent more time, reading my blogs maybe you would be driving “Vettes and Vipers” my two favorite cars. Just remember this blog was intended for friends, family and relatives because it´s easier than constantly calling from Peru and Yes. I have a disclaimer; it reads:

“If anyone is dumb enough to listen a poor Italian kid from South Philadelphia, they deserve to lose money”

I won´t get bullish until the Dow breaks 18,200 on the Upside on large volume. The total daily volume of stocks has been declining.

Not a good sign and earnings of companies have been declining. All I see is bad news everywhere.

I keep about 15 market internals every day, 4 times a day. At 10.00, 12.00, 02.00 and 04.00 O´clock, and I will admit some of them are starting to look a little better. If the Dow should break 18,200 on the Upside and only on a large volume, sell your puts fast for whatever they are trading at. I would be shocked if that happens.

Happy Trading!

 

 

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Uncategorized

PERU YOU ARE A FIRST WORLD COUNTRY. YOU ARE A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH. YOU ARE ON THE EDGE OF GREATNESS

Te amo Perú. Paraíso, paraíso, otro día in Paraíso! My two favorite’s mantras since I am in Peru. You know I never did anything in life just for one reason. For me to move on something, I needed at least 3-4 or 5 reasons. But there were at least 10 or more reasons for me to come to Peru. I will just give you some of them.

To my Wall St. friends, friend friends and relatives stay with me. This blog may contain answers to your most pressing investment questions: The market, the dollar, retirement and Real Estate.

Reasons I love Peru:

#1 My wife is Peruvian, she is the sweetest thing in my life. We met in Florida, Deerfield Beach in December 1999. We met at a bus stop. Neither of us was supposed to be there that day on that time of the day. My company car was being repaired and I had to take a bus to pick it up. She went somewhere in Deerfield with her daughter but the place was closed due to some holiday. So I walk to the bus stop bench, saw these two beautiful women, one young, one old. I sat next to the older one, on her right and whenever she turned to her left to talk to her daughter I would check her out, beautiful long black hair and I mean really black, on a slightly dark brown body. I always loved that combination even when I was a kid watching cowboy movies on TV, there were always an Indian girl in the show with long black hair and a well-tanned body.

Even the Howdy-Dowdy Show had Princess Summer, Fall, Winter Spring. She was beautiful, if you are old enough to remember Howdy-Dowdy. Anyway just to start a conversation, I asked her if she was waiting a long time and how often do the buses come. I didn’t know because I really never took a bus in Florida. She said one should come soon. I think it was her voice, I liked her right away. She was a little chubby, not tall but cute legs, meaning they were slightly sexy. I am Italian, so the chubby didn’t bother me because I knew I didn’t like skinny girls. I just thought her face was beautiful.

The bus finally came and we all got on and sat near each other and continued with the small talk. Then she said she had to get off soon. I said hey if you want to sit for coffee or to watch a movie sometime. I verbally gave her my phone number and she jotted it down. I never asked a girl for her phone number in my whole life, because I always felt she would change 1 or 2 digits, if she didn’t like me plus I could never handle the anticipation or figure out what to say on the first call. I just was never good in that whole area.

That day and evening passed without a call from my Indian princess and I just said oh well not meant to be. The next day, late afternoon she called. I was happy. We made a date for early evening. I picked her up and we went to Misner Park in Boca Raton for coffee, Starbucks of course. We walked around the park a bit and then all of a sudden I kissed her forehead. After that we held hands, it felt good, it felt right. After my last relationship ended in New York I wasn’t with a woman for 5 years. This was my first step back into those scary waters. I invited her back to my apartment but warmed her there was Tina Turner Concert later on TV which I was dying to see. I love Tina I must have seen 5 or 6 Live Tina Concerts. In fact, before I left NY for Florida, my daughter took me to a Tina Concert as a Good bye gift at Jones Beach which I won’t forget because the seats were so great. I think I was only 20 feet from Tina. Thank you, JoJo.

Cecilia said she liked Tina. I was surprised someone from Peru would even know Tina Turner. She explained her generation didn’t have their own music, like we only had Sinatra, Rosemary Clooney and Tony Bennett till rock’n roll came in.

So all of South Americans loves and knows our music from the Beatles till today. She didn’t know doo-op and earlier tunes. Well after watching the concert the kissing started and other stuff. I asked to move in that night. She moved in the next day, we talked about marriage within days and here it is almost 16 years later. I just feel better when she is around and I know she feels the same.

#2 The People.  I love the people in Peru. They are happy, humble hardworking people. All very nice to me; Gringo Frank. They all respond with Buenos Dias when I see someone and say Hola!.  I say Hola to everyone even strangers. Try that in NY.

#3 Food – Out of this world.

My favorite is sudado. It is fish in a red sauce. Probably because Angelina my grandmother made it every Friday nite in the winter, remember meatless Friday. In the summer it was always crabs and red sauce.

After sudado I love picante de camarones, Ceviche and Jalea, Chinese food is very popular here but not like American Chinese food. On one visit to the States my daughter took me to PF Changs on Long Island. I loved it. Every Chinese restaurant here is like PF Changs.

#4 The Music

Ah.. The music is very emotional. Go to you tube search Alejandra Guzman. Song: Yo Te esperaba. If you can watch and listen to that song and not cry, there is something wrong with you. I also love Carlos Vives, Unicornio by Silvio Rodríguez, Thalía- Estoy enamorada. But my favorite is Mana, watch the concert at Vina del Mar on You Tube. Our wedding song is Vivir sin aire by Mana.

#5 The weather is beautiful.

The average winter temperature is 58 degrees. In the summer the average temperature is 88 degrees. It’s funny as soon as it goes below 65 degrees people here start wearing heavy coats, hats and hoods, gloves and boots. It’s crazy. But you know what is really crazy? In the 12 or 13 years I am here I haven’t seen one homeless person. You see poor people during the day, but they don’t beg they are selling candies, clothing, books, or toys.

Peru is very family oriented; it reminds me of South Philly 40 or 50 years ago. Every home has an old person in it, either a parent, grandparent, aunt or uncle. Others with no family to care for them are put in old age homes which are paid for by the social medical system. No homeless people sleeping on cardboard boxes trying to keep warm.

#6 The Luxor.

There are a lot of Casinos here. All sizes. Big (Atlantic City size) and small. But most are in between in size. My favorite is Luxor probably because I was usually lucky there. Luxor is in Monterrico but what I love about it are the workers and the owners. They are the nicest people in the industry. I love Jessica and Nestor and one of the owners Victor. My wife and I don’t go anymore because they used to serve two hot meals a day which they stopped. The best part is you give them US 100 dollars they give you 290 soles, enough to play for a couple of hours.

Peru on the brink of greatness!

TO BE CONTINUED

To my Wall Street friends: I was looking for a bigger correction and I laughed when they celebrated the passing of the anniversary 1987 crash.

Be careful October isn’t over yet and the great crash of 1929 started on October 24th with its worst days being October 28th and 29th.

For the record, I still don’t like the market.

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BLACK SWANS AND TIPPING POINTS.

August 20th wednesday I was sick for a week and a half.

RESILIENT Ah resilient! I don’t know why the fucking market is still up.

The news get worst and the market still up. We are still below my bearish call at 16,950. It seems like that’s all I see and hear.

Ever since I mentioned them in my first and second blog in late June. I want to thank my son Spider, he hates when I called him that. For giving me both books (Black Swans and Tipping Points) a few years ago.

I am starting to feel like Jesse Libermore who made and lost three fortunes, as the story goes. He committed suicide in  the men’s room of Oscar Del Monicos restaurant after losing his third fortune. He was called the Boy Plunger and the Great Bear of Wall Street. He made a $100 million dollars in the 1907 crash and a $125 million in the 1929 crash. You are talking about a billion dollars plus in today’s world.

I found his book “Reminiscences of the Stock Operator” early in my career there was a Strand book store across the street from my firm at 57 Water Street Downtown Manhattan. I had to pass it while walking to the subway to get home.

They had the new books inside. When the weather was nice they would put tables outside filled with used books and old books. I use to love to browse through them. That where I found and bought Libermore’s book. Try to get it. It is a great read.

I mentioned Black Swans and Tipping Points only because I am a contrarian, now it seems half the world is getting as bearish as me. Another thing that bothers me is the Advance-Decline Line Chart starting to look better. I mentioned Libermore because he said the only time he lost money was when he broke one of his own rules. Which is what I am doing now, breaking my own rules.

I want to thank Zerohedge.com for showing an A-D Line Chart a few weeks ago on the web site. I think zerohedge.com is one of the superior web sites out there. And I also think that only a small percentage ever saw or heard of an A-D Line Chart.

I am changing my Market Call?  NO.

In fact I now think when this market breaks it would be a sound not only heard around the w.orld but around the universe.

I can’t stop listening Cold Play the CD with the colorful butterfly if you don’t think Latin love American music just go to you tube and watch there Rocking in Rio Concert from Brazil.

The last time I listening to a CD that much was in my younger years as a trader, the pressure on the job was too much most of my fellows’ traders either drank a lot or took drugs.  I was raising a family and didn’t want to go that route besides I am Pisces we are addictive by nature.

I’ve been smoking since I was 14. For the last 2 weeks I had the flu. It’s going around. It gave me a lung infection and I had to go on strong antibiotics, coughing my brains out.

Did I stop smoking or even cut back? NO. What a fucking idiot!

Being sick is also the reason I didn’t write my blog in two weeks.

Anyway I bought a work out bench two dumbbells and a barbell and weights and worked out 2 or 3 nights a week while listening to Dark Side of the Moon Pink Floyd. It works. I was the calmest trader on the desk. When I was sick I wanted to write about AG BECKER. Here it is.

You know you don’t realize it but you spend more time with the people you worked with than your own family. I love all the people I worked with at AG Becker, then AG Becker Warburg then Warburg Becker Paribas. When I started at AG Becker in 1966 it was a NY start-up office with only 40 people, the main office was in Chicago and they were around for almost a century.

Over the years the NY office grew from 40 to 4,000 people. Then one morning August 3rd 1984 to be exact all the managers from all the departments in the firm walked around telling the workers to watch Reuters news at 9 o’clock   am.

After 10 or 15 minutes it finally hit the tape AG Becker closed its doors. Dead silence. Everyone was in shock. I just sat there trying to absorb the news, 2 or 3 hours later people were passing by and saying Frank go out to lunch, go get some fresh air. I didn’t know what to do and never went out to lunch in almost 20 years. Traders were fed at the desk. Between making a market in 15 OTC stocks and executing orders you just couldn’t leave the desk.

That was Friday. Well about 4 hours later around lunch time I realize everyone left the floor. I wasn’t hungry. So I went outside and felt the midday sun for the first time in 20 years. I was scared. I left the building and sat on the nearest bench and lit up a cigarrete.

I close my eyes and said Jesus I just took out a big loan to buy a bungalow two blocks from the ocean at Rockaway Point that was between Breezy Point and Roxbury. My life dream. Isn’t life a bitch. I close my eyes again and said Please Jesus I need help. With that I automatically got up and start walking uptown for 5 or 6 blocks when I saw a bookstore I never notice before, walked in and like a guided robot walked three isles over make a right turn and about 1/3 down the isle I stopped, turned and looked at the books and my eyes and hands at the same time reached for a book that was called MIND CONTROL by Jose Silva. I walked into the cashier and bought the book. I walked back to the office and everyone was taking stuff from their desk drawers   and putting them in boxes. It was depressing. I wished everyone a nice weekend and told them don’t worry we all will have jobs in one or two weeks. Only because AG Becker was the first Brokerage Firm that I can remember that went out of business in the middle of a Bull Market, believe it or not almost everyone had a job but the end of the first week.

The S.E.C. I think push Merryl Lynch into buying and hiring most of AG Beckers employees because and this is how I heard the story. There were many stories at that time that AG Becker hires a hot shot Bond Trader from Merryl Lynch who after 2 months lost 8 million dollars. Then  the figure grew to 18 million dollars when all was set and done the final figure was 80 million dollars.That was just too much for a firm that size to absorb.

I started reading the book on the beach the next day and started practicing meditating for the first time on my life. Thank you Jesus for bailing me out again.

I just wish I could go back in time for just one day and go to work and see all the people that I loved. I miss all of you, even the not so nice ones.

Just thoughts

It took exactly 40 trading days for my 1987 crash call to happen. It is now almost 40 trading days from my June 24th bearish market call.

Final Note

One of the things that happened before the 87 crash was that the Japanese were buying US Real Estate and I think the Pan Am Building was bought at an outrageous price and now I hear that the Chinese are buying up Real Estate in Detroit at a crazy pace.

Next Blog

Water, water everywhere but not a drop to drink…. I don’t know who said that.

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