economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, STOCK MARKET

LAST EXIT OFF THE HIGHWAY TO HELL A down September leading to an October bloodbath

September 24th 2016

 

One of my favorite people in Wall Street and a former boss, JLD used to say “I’d rather be lucky than smart” and that´s what happen to us in the last quarter. Just five traiding days after my last blog one stock of my Short list dropped 110 points, Priceline (PCLN). Now I don’t know about you but if I had a Short drop 110 points in 5 days, that´s $250,000 on 25 puts. I would have at least taken half the gain, if not all of it. That alone would have covered all the cost of my other puts, where 2 or 3 had 10 and 15 points gains all the other lost money but Net-Net we still would have had a great quarter.

In my last blog I said that one of my internal market indicators turned bullish (the new highs, new lows numbers) and that the Dow could see a new high and I also said if it breaks new highs on big volume, you should sell all puts. Not only did it not move higher on big volume but the higher it went, the smaller the daily volume totaled.

Volume actually decreased each day, never a good sign.

Don’t underestimate the value of internal market indicators, the new highs new lows indicator is now neutral.

Also, just remember the Dow is only 30 stocks. There is roughly 6 to 7 trillion dollars under management.

I am sure a small % of these Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds spend a large part of the trading day trying to move the Dow up, what they have got to lose.

I call these guys “The Dow 30 Video Game Boys”.

The same with the S and P futures, they almost always move higher overnight when the volume is small but as soon as the next trading day begins, they are hit to a more realistic price level.

The Dow is only 30 stocks, the S and P is 500 stocks.

The index to watch is the NYSE, it´s 3300 stocks and that index never hit a new high, in fact the best level it reached was almost 360 points lower than its high for the year.

You should still be buying puts and add GS and BIDU to the short list.

Oh! Talk about luck; I got an e-mail this week saying that Jim Chanos, the king of shorts and Enron fame, just put out his new best short idea, TESLA (TSLA) which has been on my shortlist.

I think zerohedge.com is one of the finest web sites out there. They recently wrote “There are over 40% fewer stocks listed in 2016, than in 1996” that may be the only reason this Bull market has lasted this long. That’s like twice as much money chasing half as many stocks. Does that make me bullish now? NO.

Because last year June 2015, when I said we were already in a recession, and a Bear market will begin. I was a lone voice. Since then the market have moved sideways and most stocks trend lower in a range bound market, as for the roughly 40% fewer stocks being listed.

To me it means they will be hit twice as hard in this Bear market as earnings continue to slide.

Well we didn’t See 13,000 Dow yet and that made me depressed for the last 3 months. I mean I´ve been wrong before, at least once, maybe twice but never for this long. One year wow!

When I am depressed I usually do one of three things:

First I’ll read some of my positive emails, one of my favorite is: “You know what I like about marketcallanastasi? He says the same thing everyone says, but 3 to 6 months before everyone else”.

Not this time. I called for a recession and Bear market; well I got the recession right.

The next thing I do is listen to Pink Floyd’s “Dark side of the moon” their music and only their music put me in a transcendental state and I think it is the combination of the slide guitar and organ, then when I heard “Comfortably numb” I said that´s perfect description of this market.

The last thing I do is work out, you know what?  I am going to go listen to more Pink Floyd.!!

Well I shouldn’t feel too depressed about Dow 13,000, we’ve had 4 good corrections in the last year and a half, and my readers made lots of money, that’s more than most Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds can say. Besides I like all the names of the people, money, managers, funds and banks that turned bearish 3 to 6 months after me, even Donald Trump. Wow!!!!!

Just thoughts:

I wonder how much buying power has been taken out of the economy from savers not making much on their money due to low interest rates over the last 6 or 7 years.

The SEC should check option trades in CMG the weeks before it crashed from 742 to 413, tainted foods in several different states, sounds like terrorist or short sellers to me. They should have done the same after the 911 twin tower attacks.

Follow the money, you might be surprised.

Trucking industry shipments fall off charts

K-Mart closing 64 more stores

Container ship companies beaching their boats and cutting them up for scrap metal, the business is dying

Fewer customers at all restaurants, you know? Americans don’t like to cook, things must be bad

Teenagers in poor cities selling sex for food

Tent cities popping up all across America for homeless people

Driving season is over, oil could see 30 again unless Russia and Saudis make a deal.

The list of good news I see is usually Bullshit.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) starting to lay off workers, a bellwether stock, in mining, farming and construction.

Sounds like a highway to hell to me.

Bullishness among traders hit an all-time high in august, meaning most shorts are covered. I am a seller, buy puts. It takes balls to go against the crowd.

I always felt that the rich will do anything and everything to protect their wealth, well they have, and we are still nowhere.

“Bulls make money, Bears make money but pigs get slaughtered”

This has been the most difficult year for trading that I can remember since my start on Wall St. in 1967, almost 50 years ago. I never thought I would live this long.

The best way to reach me is

marcello.anastasi@ymail.com

So long from  Peru.

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economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, SOTCK MARKET

OCTOBER BLOOD BATH STILL IN THE CARDS, TOO MANY BLACK SWANS IN THE POOL.

This is a Bear Market trap.
Do not buy into this rally, even if it last a few more days.
Why?
Because growth in the manufacture and service sectors is slowly dying and inflation, which I always believed was a natural by-product of the economy, is slowly moving into minus territory, which means we hardly have an economy which is also dying.
Lastly I have a bad feeling about Russians war efforts.
A lot of money was made on our last blogs lists of puts to buy. We made 38 points on the vix alone.

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economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, STOCK MARKET

Dow 30 video game bad boys. Shame on you!. Monday Dec 1st. The Dam finally bursts . “If Santa Claus should fail to call Bears may come to broad and wall” . Russian Mafia. Will Tesla be the tucker auto of this century?. Water, water everywhere but not a drop to drink.

By the end of Thanksgiving week, all my people were totally out of the market. They know when I say “everybody out of the pool”; it means go to 100% cash. At that time, it was obvious to me that it was getting harder and harder for the “Dow 30 video Bad Boys” to paint the tape; the volume of down stocks vs. the volume of up stocks was getting greater and greater.

In my last blog written on Nov 19th but not entered on wordpress.com, YouTube, twitter, Google until Nov 21st  because it was my daughter’s birthday Nov 20th  and I wanted to wait till that day passed so I could write a story about my memories of her growing up.

In that blog I mentioned that I thought the “Dow 30 video Bad Boys” were manipulating the Dow High frequency Traders, Flash Boys and recently laid off and possibly the Hedge Funds Crooked FX Traders.

the manipulation was obvious to me by the internals of the market on Nov 13th which I said “I couldn’t swallow”

Well, on Monday Dec 1st, the dam finally burst the tape painters ran out of the paint. They couldn’t support the Dow any longer. The down volume was almost 4 to 1 over up volume. But the real tipoff was the S and P 500 Down -14.12. That translates to a Dow down at least 140 to 160 points, not down 52.44.

It’s not secret, on any given day. Just multiply the S+P, up or down by 10 and more often than not.

It will tell you what the Dow is really doing, give or take a little. Try it for a while, you’ll be amazed at how often the S and P times 10 = the Dow.

Example- market (Lose Fri Dec 12, Dow Down -315, S and P 500 -33.

I’ve been watching this game for about 50 years now and no one can tell me anything different. Even the new lows are now out numbering the new highs. It’s not hard to keep track of these numbers. I just hit yahoo.com Finance; they do a pretty good job of giving you all the numbers and much more.

My friends, specially the “Oracles of Juniper Valley Park” often say, Frank why can’t we just buy and hold like Warren Buffet, instead of jumping in and jumping out of the market.

Warren Buffet is not a Buy and Hold guy; he is a buy for life guy. He holds stocks longer than most people live.

Let’s admit it, he is a genius. Do you think it’s  easy buying a stock and holding it for 30 or 40 years and feeling confident that that company will still be in business 50 years from now.

He is one of a kind, once in a lifetime phenomena. Hey, we got in the market over 4 ½  years ago and didn’t sell until this July, 6 month ago, called for an October Blood bath. Almost got it. Bought stocks back on the selloff, which paid off and most recently I asked “everyone to get out of the pool” the week before Thanksgiving. I only do what the market tells me to do.

Now you know how important market internals can be.

If Santa Claus should fail to call Bears may come to broad and wall”

I don’t know the accuracy ratting on that theory but it must have worked enough times for people on Wall St. to still quote it.

It’s the Santa Claus Rally

Like I said over and over, I still think the economy will continue to do better but we are not out of the woods yet, malls are still folding, retail sales have slowed. The employment picture is brighter but wages are stagnant, financial engineering has gone as far as it can, the con summer is or almost is taped-out or will be after Christmas, car sales are great but that’s because the average car is more than 10 years old and when your monthly car repair bill are more than the monthly payment to buy a new car, you don’t have  much of a choice , plus dealers are giving cars away with subprime lending practices and with all this, not to mention geo-political risk, Ebola, and Isis . I just think the market is a little ahead of itself.

The Russian mafia

You know this guy Puttin has some pair of huevos (eggs) as they say in Peru.

Kruschev, he was a clown. I can still picture him at a United Nations meeting pounding his shoe on the table.

Puttin’s determined. Most of my working life I lived in Rego Park Queens NY and every day I would walk down 63rd Drive to the E train to go to work. There were 3 or 4 Russian restaurants on 63rd Drive and there still are 3 or 4 even today, naturally they were closed in the morning but coming home at nite they were open and more often than not, there was a bunch of Russians always all men, loudly arguing on the sidewalk. I mean heated arguments I always got the feeling there was more than just food cooking inside. These guys looked tough with their fortunes and assets tanking with the Russian ruble. I wouldn’t be surprised if they made an attempt on Puttin’s life unless he has included them on some end game benefits.

Will Tesla be the Tucker auto of this century?

Do you remember the Tucker? No. Do you remember the movie “The Tucker”?

I saw it with my son Greg, well the Tucker  was a car way ahead of its time and the Detroit car makers put up enough road-blocks to stop it from getting off the ground, not too unlike todays Tesla, plus if the price of oil stays down here or goes lower.

Americans are slow to change old habits specially habits they enjoy, like owning and driving muscle cars that go from 0 to 60 in 3 or 4 seconds and really sounds great.

I know how much Americans love their cars I know because I lost a lot of real estate and other toys that I enjoyed and the thing I miss the most and think of the most is my 1986 Corvette, in fact I keep a picture of it in my wallet till this day. The picture was taken with me and my youngest son Greg standing by it.

Water, water everywhere but not a drop to drink

I don’t know who said it, if you do please tell me.

Well, rising water levels offshore and lowering levels onshore. California thinks their drought will end soon ha! I don’t believe in Global Warming, it’s just a cycle. Do you know that they found dinosaur bones and fossil trees and leaves in the Artic where snow has melted and exposed these things?, it must have been very warm there at one time and the same time snow and ice are accumulating in other parts of the world. What I do think has happened , is that the earth has shifted its axis, a little bit North and a little bit East, making California now part of the desert and also causing the earth to move up and under a lowering jet-stream causing severe winters to occur further south in the US.

I think they should build desalinization plants in very town that is on the ocean in California. The plants don’t have to be right on the beach, just water pipeline in the ocean extending to the plant a mile in land. Hey! It beats drinking toilet water and having water wars.

Caution. 10% of my emails incoming and outgoing are not being transmitted. It’s an international problem.

Thank God I can finally stop smoking in a painless and happy way. Palm Beach Vapors is coming out with E cigarettes with cannabis oil. Wow!, who is going to want to smoke regular cigarettes with this available.

Sorry the company is not public, that’s the first thing I checked.

NASA claims they would find aliens within 20 years. Why does our government and their agencies that IRS, CIA, and other pools of idiots think that the citizens of this great country are stupid. Do you know how much money has been spent, covering up Roswell for decades? I always believe they existed and I know most Americans do also. If you don’t believe in aliens, just checked out the last 5 or 6 appearances of Harry Reid and listen to the things he said, out of this world.

Again I don’t got good grammar and I don’t got good spelling, plus my wife who is nice enough to type my blog, is Peruvian and don’t got good English and I don’t speak Spanish. Most of the time is the “I love Lucy Show” around here, with Lucy and Ricky yelling at each other and I love it.

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economy, STOCK MARKET

THIS YEAR’S NEW HOT VIDEO GAME “THE DOW 30”

You know Russia is going to invade the Ukraine but my biggest worry is will cost Europe to crumble.

I can’t believe the amount of complacence existing in the market today.

Friday November 21st

Be the first kid on your block to own the Dow 30 video game. On sale in most major retail stores, starting this thanksgiving holiday. Black Friday, Thursday, Saturday or Monday. Nothing is the same anymore. It’s not easy getting old, everything constantly changes and at a faster and faster rate.

Jiggling the Dow

I had a feeling this was going on, but I wasn’t certain until November 13 when the market closed. The Dow was up +40.59 at 17,652, the advancing issues or up stocks were 34%, the declining issues or down stocks were 62%. 4% unchanged.

The NYSE index was down -15.11 or 0.14% which roughly translate into down 30 points + on the Dow. That’s a 70 points difference on a day when there were 2 stocks down for every 1 stock up. That’s a little more than I can swallow. Just remember the Dow index is only 30 stocks. The NYSE is 3,220 stocks.

Everybody out of the pool.

The week before November 13, FX Traders around the world were fired for rigging.

I think they joined forces with the Flash Boys and High Frequency Traders. The up volume was -2,247, 283, 386.

I am telling my people to get out of the market totally.

The Dow is making new highs but the NYSE hasn’t reached its previous high yet.

Wait till these guys realize that you can make more money and faster in a down market. OH BOY!

No October blood bath

Only down about 10%. I was looking for down 15%. Just some blood. All in all is not a bad call.

We were long for over 4 years, got out.

Before the October break, bought stocks

Back at 20 to 30 and in a few cases 40% cheaper. This will be my last discussion on market internals. I would like to start talking about stock selection, options and technical analysis, www.etf.com a great website, had an article out last month saying that the market has been deteriorating since late June, just about the time I put out my sell signal. Everybody out until internals look better maybe during December lows.

Happy Birthday Joanna Banana!

“Am I wrong” yeah yeah yeah yeah, watch the video. The one from Africa, there are several versions, look for the one with elephants on the cover. We have 5 or 6 great American music radio stations here in Peru and between the 5 or 6 stations I can hear music from the 50’s up until todays music.

Latins love our music, when I was younger I couldn’t always catch the words in songs. I thought I had hearing problems until I heard everyone singing “looks like tomatoes” Barry Manilow. But today on You Tube they give you the lyrics. I even check lyrics on old songs to hear what I missed.

Music was always one of my passions. I love today’s music, the words, melody and rhythm. I give it a 90 for the beat. American Bandstand Phila, Penna. But the things that gets me the most about music is , no matter how old a song is when I hear it I immediately remember where I was, the person I was with, and the general feeling , good or bad, that come to my mind,  when that song was popular and naturally all the words.  I can’t remember 5 Spanish words from one day to the next. But I could remember most of the words of hundreds of songs, specially the good parts like “Am I wrong” yeah yeah yeah yeah. Now stay with me and this will all make sense.

I never celebrated my birthdays because I didn’t want to feel older but whenever November rolls around. I start to feel older because it’s my oldest child’s birthday, my beautiful daughter’s birthday. Every year I would call her on or near her birthday and say JoJo tell me slowly how old are you and I would all of a sudden, feel older. This November was especially bad. During the first few days of the month, 88.3 Radio Magica here in Peru played “Jack and Dianne” John Mellencamp. That was the first song my baby ever started singing as a teenager. “Oh yeah! Life goes on even after the thrill of living  is gone”. She sang a little off key.

I can still clearly picture her sitting on the bottom first or second step of the stairs in our living room. There in her blue jeans, she lived in her blue jeans, with her beautiful thick eyebrows just like the actress Ally Mc Graw. Life was changing for young women, no more secretarial school for typing and office skills. Now it was College and competing against men not just working for them.

So to encourage her, at night I would walk in her bedroom and while she was sleeping I would whisper in her ear: “JoJo you could be anything you want to be in life”.

It’s just not fair, time has robbed me. It steals from all of us. She doesn’t wear jeans anymore; she trimmed her eyebrows when she started working in wall St, I was so proud of her, my beautiful teenager is now 46 and she is more beautiful than ever. I still feel like I am 46 even though I am 71, just a lie of time. I guess it’s just not fair.

Happy Birthday Daddy’s beautiful teenager, I still see you that way. Don’t get older cause it makes me feel older. “Oh yeah life goes on”

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economy

AN OCTOBER BLOOD BATH IS COMING

”You ain’t seen nothing yet”

Marcello Frank Anastasi, No Al Jolson said “You ain’t heard nothing yet” The Jazz Singer.

Does anyone remember October Blood Baths?  I am calling for one now.

They were very common in the 1970’s and 1980’s. I remember seeing traders who were normally strong and calm in face of some really bad days which normally occur during a normal trading year. These same traders would physically shake and have trouble speaking a clear coherent and complete sentence. Believe me when I tell you I saw one young trader actually peeing his pants when the office girl only asked him what he wanted to order for lunch. I also remember him yelling back at her, standing there with tears in his eyes while shaking and peeing and screaming at her “Do you know what the fuck is going on?” She had no idea.

I won’t mention his name because I liked him; he was really a nice guy. Even if I didn’t like him, I wouldn’t mention his name only because the whole fucking thing was not a nice thing to remember.  I think of him every October. It’s one my rare bad memories of Wall Street. He didn’t come to work the next day, or the day after that, or the next either. He did come up to the trading dept. four weeks later to apologize for his behavior on that bad day. He also came to say Good Bye. He was leaving New York. He decided that Real Estate was going to be the next hot industry and he thought the Boom was already starting in California which is where he was going to. Boy! Was he right!.

That was in the late 1970’s I was happy for him, I later heard he ended up doing very well. I want to dedicate this story to all our elected assholes in Wash. DC who never put in a full work day and spend most of their time flying around on some sort of perpetual vacation, paid by hard working Americans.

The only time they stop the vacation is when they have to stop and pick-up a bribe or payoff they earned for passing a pork -belly project or a Bridge to nowhere project. And I’ll bet the really crooked politicians buy cheap Real Estate when they know a bill will be passed. But you know what pisses me off they think the American people don’t know this shit goes on. Shame on you. How come they all retire millionaires? It must be all that over time they put-in during their working careers. Oh! And the buildings in Wash. DC must all have sun tanning bulbs as lights.

Enough, I hate when this mean side of me comes out. but it makes me feel so good, I actually breath better and while we are on the subject of assholes, the MBA’s , Quants and so called pundits. September is not the weakest month of the year. October is. During October blood baths, blood runs in the streets caused by selling panics which usually exhaust themselves by mid-month or later in the month causing a sharp snap-back upward movement and thus showing a not so big % downward end result for the month.

To all those I love, things will get worse before they get better and I said it in my second or third blog. God Loves this great country, we will be back on top again. I also believe God elected every president we had, including Obama. I felt bad during the Bush Gore Election. God had to re-arrange all those hanging chads on the voting cards in Florida. I am a democrat but God put Bush in because he knew Gore would never retaliate the way Bush did. And we would be suffering many terrorist attacks like the Boston Marathon. Am i religious? Do I go to church? All I can say is Jesus is my best friend. Obama’s time to shine will come soon and he will go down in the history books as the President Most Loved by the people.  I loved him from day one. “Be not afraid” my fellow Americans

PS.. No, Flushing Red signals was not a mistake, I meant it. I have never seen all 10 of my indicators go all red (SELL) or all black (BUY) they usually just go to a majority, like 6-7-or 8 out of 10. If I am reading them right, Flushing is the right word. Stocks will tank and flushed right down the toilet.

PS PS Do you remember the movie “Grumpy Old Men? Well I was a lot younger when I saw it. It must be at least 20 years old. When I saw it I said, I hope I’ll never get like that and just laughed. I thought it was so funny. Well guess what, I am worse than that, at times I have no patience and everything annoys me. Then there are times when i get so piss-off I get crazy. I guess I am trying to explain my rage against our political leaders in Wash. DC, but I do notice one good thing about getting old” You care but you really don’t give a shit”

Joan Rivers, no one makes me laugh like you did.!

I will miss you. Her charitable works are unbelievable. Search them on Google.

God Bless you Joan

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economy

OCTOBER BLOOD BATH

Starting as of today  October 1st 2014. All ten of my indicators are flushing RED. That is five primary indicators  and five of my secondary indicators. There will be blood on the streets. The whole article which I wrote today will have to wait till tomorrow because my beautiful wife just came back from a business trip in Cuzco and Machu Picchu. she is ready to drop and I don’t have the heart to ask her to seat and type for three or four hours.

(You ain’t seen nothing yet)

Marcello Frank Anastasi not Al Jolson he said you ain’t heard nothing yet. “THE JAZZ SINGER”

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