Uncategorized

“Fake News”

Jun 6,2017
The biggest piece of “fake news” in 2016/2017 is the stock market and the fake earnings that moved the DOW to these scary levels. When I started on Wall St. In the mid 1960’s they called it cooking the books, a softer term in later years was creative accountings, since 2009 it was called financial engineering. It still all smells and looks like a lot of ENRONS to me. 2 or 3 weeks ago PRICELINE was down 110 points in one day, That’s a $250,000 plus gain on just 25 puts. Keep buying puts and the VIX.
~ My Email is Marcello.Anastasi@Ymail.com

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crisis, economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, SOTCK MARKET, Uncategorized

The good News is- The recession is over, The bad news is- !The depression has started!

 

This time QE did not trickle down to the working man. If you want to turn this economy around in 3 months give refunds back to the working man on the income taxes he paid last year.

 

On march 9th I wrote ITS OVER, that my VSI indicator was flashing red and I saw an Island Reversal on the charts, the after the president’s speech on march 1st, and to buy puts on our list of stocks to short and buy the VIX.

 

The Island reversal is a sign of exhaustions.

 

The number of retails store closings is getting bigger and I don’t believe is all due to amazon. What would happen if they started delivering burgers, chicken and pizza by Drones? And no one has mentioned all the jobs that will be lost.

 

If I had money I would wait until a mall was ready to foreclose or go bankrupt, buy it on the cheap and convert it into an apartment buildings. You already have large indoor and outdoor parking, just add heated swimming pools, kitchens and bedrooms.

 

Earnings on the 500 S and P stocks have gone nowhere in the last 3 years, but the market is up 33% in 3 years. Either this is the dumbest generation of investors I’ve seen in my 50 years of WALL ST., or I am getting to old for this game.

 

 Just thoughts..

 

Gasoline inventories Building to records levels the only place people are driving to is Walmart’s.

 

Even the upper middle class are shopping there.

 

Restaurants are dying, Broadway tickets sales are down, art sales down, expensive watch sales down and Miami and Manhattan condo sales are plunging.

 

My readers know how I feel about most of our political leaders. They are lying, cheating, stealing, Lowlife crooks, and most Americans feel the same.

 

This pizza gate story is gaining strength, if it turns out to be true it could destroy our country from the inside out.

Contact me at marcello.anastasi@ymail.com

 

 

 

 

 

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crisis, economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, SOTCK MARKET

IT´S OVER

                                                      THE VSI IS FLASHING RED!! 

AND I THINK I SAW AN ISLAND REVERSAL

ON MARCH 1st, THE DAY AFTER THE PRESIDENT´S SPEECH.

IT IS TIME FOR THE MARKET TO GO DOWN!

BUY PUTS AND BUY THE VIX

March 8th 2017

Reach me at: marcello.anastasi@ymail.com

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economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, STOCK MARKET

LAST EXIT OFF THE HIGHWAY TO HELL A down September leading to an October bloodbath

September 24th 2016

 

One of my favorite people in Wall Street and a former boss, JLD used to say “I’d rather be lucky than smart” and that´s what happen to us in the last quarter. Just five traiding days after my last blog one stock of my Short list dropped 110 points, Priceline (PCLN). Now I don’t know about you but if I had a Short drop 110 points in 5 days, that´s $250,000 on 25 puts. I would have at least taken half the gain, if not all of it. That alone would have covered all the cost of my other puts, where 2 or 3 had 10 and 15 points gains all the other lost money but Net-Net we still would have had a great quarter.

In my last blog I said that one of my internal market indicators turned bullish (the new highs, new lows numbers) and that the Dow could see a new high and I also said if it breaks new highs on big volume, you should sell all puts. Not only did it not move higher on big volume but the higher it went, the smaller the daily volume totaled.

Volume actually decreased each day, never a good sign.

Don’t underestimate the value of internal market indicators, the new highs new lows indicator is now neutral.

Also, just remember the Dow is only 30 stocks. There is roughly 6 to 7 trillion dollars under management.

I am sure a small % of these Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds spend a large part of the trading day trying to move the Dow up, what they have got to lose.

I call these guys “The Dow 30 Video Game Boys”.

The same with the S and P futures, they almost always move higher overnight when the volume is small but as soon as the next trading day begins, they are hit to a more realistic price level.

The Dow is only 30 stocks, the S and P is 500 stocks.

The index to watch is the NYSE, it´s 3300 stocks and that index never hit a new high, in fact the best level it reached was almost 360 points lower than its high for the year.

You should still be buying puts and add GS and BIDU to the short list.

Oh! Talk about luck; I got an e-mail this week saying that Jim Chanos, the king of shorts and Enron fame, just put out his new best short idea, TESLA (TSLA) which has been on my shortlist.

I think zerohedge.com is one of the finest web sites out there. They recently wrote “There are over 40% fewer stocks listed in 2016, than in 1996” that may be the only reason this Bull market has lasted this long. That’s like twice as much money chasing half as many stocks. Does that make me bullish now? NO.

Because last year June 2015, when I said we were already in a recession, and a Bear market will begin. I was a lone voice. Since then the market have moved sideways and most stocks trend lower in a range bound market, as for the roughly 40% fewer stocks being listed.

To me it means they will be hit twice as hard in this Bear market as earnings continue to slide.

Well we didn’t See 13,000 Dow yet and that made me depressed for the last 3 months. I mean I´ve been wrong before, at least once, maybe twice but never for this long. One year wow!

When I am depressed I usually do one of three things:

First I’ll read some of my positive emails, one of my favorite is: “You know what I like about marketcallanastasi? He says the same thing everyone says, but 3 to 6 months before everyone else”.

Not this time. I called for a recession and Bear market; well I got the recession right.

The next thing I do is listen to Pink Floyd’s “Dark side of the moon” their music and only their music put me in a transcendental state and I think it is the combination of the slide guitar and organ, then when I heard “Comfortably numb” I said that´s perfect description of this market.

The last thing I do is work out, you know what?  I am going to go listen to more Pink Floyd.!!

Well I shouldn’t feel too depressed about Dow 13,000, we’ve had 4 good corrections in the last year and a half, and my readers made lots of money, that’s more than most Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds can say. Besides I like all the names of the people, money, managers, funds and banks that turned bearish 3 to 6 months after me, even Donald Trump. Wow!!!!!

Just thoughts:

I wonder how much buying power has been taken out of the economy from savers not making much on their money due to low interest rates over the last 6 or 7 years.

The SEC should check option trades in CMG the weeks before it crashed from 742 to 413, tainted foods in several different states, sounds like terrorist or short sellers to me. They should have done the same after the 911 twin tower attacks.

Follow the money, you might be surprised.

Trucking industry shipments fall off charts

K-Mart closing 64 more stores

Container ship companies beaching their boats and cutting them up for scrap metal, the business is dying

Fewer customers at all restaurants, you know? Americans don’t like to cook, things must be bad

Teenagers in poor cities selling sex for food

Tent cities popping up all across America for homeless people

Driving season is over, oil could see 30 again unless Russia and Saudis make a deal.

The list of good news I see is usually Bullshit.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) starting to lay off workers, a bellwether stock, in mining, farming and construction.

Sounds like a highway to hell to me.

Bullishness among traders hit an all-time high in august, meaning most shorts are covered. I am a seller, buy puts. It takes balls to go against the crowd.

I always felt that the rich will do anything and everything to protect their wealth, well they have, and we are still nowhere.

“Bulls make money, Bears make money but pigs get slaughtered”

This has been the most difficult year for trading that I can remember since my start on Wall St. in 1967, almost 50 years ago. I never thought I would live this long.

The best way to reach me is

marcello.anastasi@ymail.com

So long from  Peru.

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economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, SOTCK MARKET, Uncategorized

SHORT THEM AGAIN, LET´S GO FOR A HAT TRICK

Well they didn´t go to 13,000 yet but I think all the shorts are covered, again. You know you can make 5 to 10 times more, more money; 5 to 10 times faster being short in a Bear Market  than you can being long in a Bull Market.

I said that the first week last June was the start of a new Bear Market and that the next rally after a 2,000-point drop was a Bear Market rally, followed by a 3,000-point drop, and I think this last rally was also a Bear market trap. If it is, the next sell- off could be down 4,000 points, all toll, the shorts will have made 10,000 points on the Dow, but wait till we go to 13,000 Dow.

Remember, in Bull Markets you buy the dips, in Bear Markets you sell the rips. Easy game.

Let´s check our Short list:

OEX Down -120 pts+

PCLN Down – 450 pts

AMZN Up, lost money

IBM Down -50 pts

GOOG Up, lost money

TSLA Down – 180 pts

NFLX Down – 35 pts

AAPL Down – 35 pts

VIX Up 35 pts

I would buy puts on this same list- except AMZN, wait 2 days, they had great earnings- keep in mind when you go short buy puts. Because the most you can lose by buying puts is the price, you paid for the puts.

If you short a stock and it goes up, your loss can be unlimited. If you do short a stock, buy slightly out of money calls, this will limit your loss.

Being naked short you can lose the ranch, really. Ever since options started trading in the mid 1970´s I am shocked whenever I hear someone has lost a bundle of money, there are so many ways to protect yourself with options.

I think the e-mails I got from my readers, kind of sums-up how they are doing.

The first one is scary:

“Hey, Market Call Anastasi, if the Dow doesn’t go to 13,000 like you keep saying, one night you are going to see a few dark vans parked in front of your house and driveway with mean looking guys inside.”

Well, I live in Peru, that´s a long drive.

The next one I should have saved, printed and framed, he says:

“I don’t believe I made $ 500,000 on the 25 puts. I´m giddy laughing, I made a boat full of money on Priceline and I buy a boat, I mean a container ship. It is the first time I ever bought puts or an option.

I felt like that 70-year-old woman from Wisconsin who for the first time in her life, she bought one Lotto quick pick ticket and won the lottery the next day.   Who knows if I had listened to you about the rally only being a Bear Market trap I could have made 300 or 400 points instead of 200 points… Thanks Market Call Anastasi…”

The majority of the e-mails all said they were happy they sold all their stocks in June at the Bull Market top and that they made money buying puts.

As for the mean looking guys in the dark vans:

If you spent more time, reading my blogs maybe you would be driving “Vettes and Vipers” my two favorite cars. Just remember this blog was intended for friends, family and relatives because it´s easier than constantly calling from Peru and Yes. I have a disclaimer; it reads:

“If anyone is dumb enough to listen a poor Italian kid from South Philadelphia, they deserve to lose money”

I won´t get bullish until the Dow breaks 18,200 on the Upside on large volume. The total daily volume of stocks has been declining.

Not a good sign and earnings of companies have been declining. All I see is bad news everywhere.

I keep about 15 market internals every day, 4 times a day. At 10.00, 12.00, 02.00 and 04.00 O´clock, and I will admit some of them are starting to look a little better. If the Dow should break 18,200 on the Upside and only on a large volume, sell your puts fast for whatever they are trading at. I would be shocked if that happens.

Happy Trading!

 

 

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economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, STOCK MARKET

NEXT STOP ON THE DOW IS 13,00o TO 14,000 THOUSAND

Sunday Nov 15th

PCLN down -138 points on Monday Nov 9. But up +25 points the Friday before.

Some of my readers can´t believe they made 100 points in one day. PCLN has been on my list of stocks to Short or Buy puts on.

The next leg of the bear market began last week and may continue till the yearend tax selling period.

Buy the VIX and keep buying puts.

To those  readers who are  asking if we are getting close to a buying area in gold. The answer is NO. I don´t see a bottom until 850 or 900.

I am sorry to see one of my predictions come true. 3 months ago some of our military and politicians said ISIS was slowly being wiped out. I said: “No, they are just getting started to grow”

I think the events in Paris this weekend prove that I am sorry to say: “THESE HEARTBREAKING EVENTS are going to get BIGGER and more FREQUENT”.

I hope I am wrong.

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economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, SOTCK MARKET

OCTOBER BLOOD BATH STILL IN THE CARDS, TOO MANY BLACK SWANS IN THE POOL.

This is a Bear Market trap.
Do not buy into this rally, even if it last a few more days.
Why?
Because growth in the manufacture and service sectors is slowly dying and inflation, which I always believed was a natural by-product of the economy, is slowly moving into minus territory, which means we hardly have an economy which is also dying.
Lastly I have a bad feeling about Russians war efforts.
A lot of money was made on our last blogs lists of puts to buy. We made 38 points on the vix alone.

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