economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, SOTCK MARKET, Uncategorized

SHORT THEM AGAIN, LET´S GO FOR A HAT TRICK

Well they didn´t go to 13,000 yet but I think all the shorts are covered, again. You know you can make 5 to 10 times more, more money; 5 to 10 times faster being short in a Bear Market  than you can being long in a Bull Market.

I said that the first week last June was the start of a new Bear Market and that the next rally after a 2,000-point drop was a Bear Market rally, followed by a 3,000-point drop, and I think this last rally was also a Bear market trap. If it is, the next sell- off could be down 4,000 points, all toll, the shorts will have made 10,000 points on the Dow, but wait till we go to 13,000 Dow.

Remember, in Bull Markets you buy the dips, in Bear Markets you sell the rips. Easy game.

Let´s check our Short list:

OEX Down -120 pts+

PCLN Down – 450 pts

AMZN Up, lost money

IBM Down -50 pts

GOOG Up, lost money

TSLA Down – 180 pts

NFLX Down – 35 pts

AAPL Down – 35 pts

VIX Up 35 pts

I would buy puts on this same list- except AMZN, wait 2 days, they had great earnings- keep in mind when you go short buy puts. Because the most you can lose by buying puts is the price, you paid for the puts.

If you short a stock and it goes up, your loss can be unlimited. If you do short a stock, buy slightly out of money calls, this will limit your loss.

Being naked short you can lose the ranch, really. Ever since options started trading in the mid 1970´s I am shocked whenever I hear someone has lost a bundle of money, there are so many ways to protect yourself with options.

I think the e-mails I got from my readers, kind of sums-up how they are doing.

The first one is scary:

“Hey, Market Call Anastasi, if the Dow doesn’t go to 13,000 like you keep saying, one night you are going to see a few dark vans parked in front of your house and driveway with mean looking guys inside.”

Well, I live in Peru, that´s a long drive.

The next one I should have saved, printed and framed, he says:

“I don’t believe I made $ 500,000 on the 25 puts. I´m giddy laughing, I made a boat full of money on Priceline and I buy a boat, I mean a container ship. It is the first time I ever bought puts or an option.

I felt like that 70-year-old woman from Wisconsin who for the first time in her life, she bought one Lotto quick pick ticket and won the lottery the next day.   Who knows if I had listened to you about the rally only being a Bear Market trap I could have made 300 or 400 points instead of 200 points… Thanks Market Call Anastasi…”

The majority of the e-mails all said they were happy they sold all their stocks in June at the Bull Market top and that they made money buying puts.

As for the mean looking guys in the dark vans:

If you spent more time, reading my blogs maybe you would be driving “Vettes and Vipers” my two favorite cars. Just remember this blog was intended for friends, family and relatives because it´s easier than constantly calling from Peru and Yes. I have a disclaimer; it reads:

“If anyone is dumb enough to listen a poor Italian kid from South Philadelphia, they deserve to lose money”

I won´t get bullish until the Dow breaks 18,200 on the Upside on large volume. The total daily volume of stocks has been declining.

Not a good sign and earnings of companies have been declining. All I see is bad news everywhere.

I keep about 15 market internals every day, 4 times a day. At 10.00, 12.00, 02.00 and 04.00 O´clock, and I will admit some of them are starting to look a little better. If the Dow should break 18,200 on the Upside and only on a large volume, sell your puts fast for whatever they are trading at. I would be shocked if that happens.

Happy Trading!

 

 

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economy, MEMORIES, SOTCK MARKET

THE SON OF A BRICKLAYER

October 6th

I woke up this morning feeling depressed and I’ve been a little depressed for a couple of months. This morning I said to myself: “ What the fuck is going on in your head?”

I thought about my last blog I didn’t like some of the things I said or maybe it was because I spoke to my youngest son Greg. He said “Dad your blog was good but little strong”.

I know what he really wanted to say, probably something like “Dad your losing your fucking mind, straighten your ass out.” But Greg would never talk to me like that and my other two, Joanna and Frankie would never correct me, say something nasty to me or just tell me off, when I deserved it. And let me tell you, over the years I’ve given them plenty of reasons to do so.

They are just beautiful people, you have no idea. Pick two or three people in your life that you really think that are nice or good or beautiful, multiply that feeling by 10 and you might get close and you know what?  Now that I think about it, not one of them even raised their voice at me. Thank you Jesus!  For that blessing: my children.

I was a good father, not a great father and I was a lousy husband and I loved them with as much love as I could.

They are the way they are because they all take after their mother.

She would try to explain to them that my capacity to love was limited, I gave the most love I could but it was limited, she often described me as a lost soul.

It hurt at first but as the years past I realized she was right.

I think that’s because my parents were not affectionate. Don’t get me wrong God knows they were good parents. My mom hit me almost every day but I deserved it. I was really bad.

Every day some neighbor would ring the doorbell and start yelling “Betty, do you know what your son is doing?”  And I would get hit.

When I got older I got faster and he got fatter, she couldn’t catch me anymore, so she started throwing things at me, until one day in a rage, she picked up one of her favorite crystal plates and threw it at me, I ducked, it hit the wall and shattered, she never threw anything at me again.

Boy! did she love her crystal stuff.

So now she would wait for my father to come home and as soon as he came through the front door she would yell to him

“Frank hit him. He was bad today”. Now, Dad was a bricklayer and when he got out of the car and walked to the front door, he couldn’t stand up straight from bending over hundreds of times a day to lay each brick one at a time, maybe more than 100 times a day.

He didn’t straighten up and walk upright until after dinner. I remember him always yelling back to my mother “Betty leave me alone, I ‘am tired”.

He hit me once on a weekend when he was well rested. I was a big teenager, 6 ft. tall and slightly fat; he punched me in the chest. I said “Dad, why did you hit me?” he said “That’s for all the nights last week when I was too tired to hit you”.

He walked away holding his wrist, he sprained it when he hit me and lost 5 days of work.

Bad news: In those days you didn’t get paid if you didn’t work.

As for Jo, my first wife, she didn’t deserve me, she deserved a lot better. I left a good woman for a pair of great legs. I’m a leg man, they are “The Gateway to Heaven” Al Pacino said from the “Scent of a woman” Whoa!!.

Lesson!  Don’t underestimate the power of the sex drive in a man even if it lasted for only a couple of years or until the next great pair of legs comes along.

But don’t blame us; we are just fucking idiots with our brains in our dicks. God made us that way.

Even though my parents didn’t show any affection I know they loved me, my 2 brothers and my sister. Mom would be up until 2 or 3 am ironing our starched white uniforms shirts and blouses, it was mandatory dress code at St. Rita’s Grade School in South Philly.

Dad laid brick until he died at 61 years of age. When he died, I cried every morning when I woke up for almost a year. The day I left for Fort Knox Kentucky to start Basic Training for the Army, my Dad hugged me, hard and kissed me on the cheek, with tears in his eyes, he walked away without saying a word.

I was shocked. He didn’t have to say anything. I know he was thinking what every father thinks when he says goodbye to his son who is leaving for military service. “I may never see my son again”.

I was lucky; my two boys were not at the right age to be drafted when we were at war. Thank you again Jesus.

I dedicate this story, against to all our elected assholes that have no idea of what life is like for the average Americans.

George Bush Senior, during his presidency announces he and his wife are going on a shopping spree because the country was in a recession at that time.

All the TV cameras were there when he handed the cashier 3 pair of socks like this was really going to help the recession and as the cashier passed the socks over the points of sales scanner he turned to his wife with a stupid look on his face and asked “What is that?, what is the cashier doing? “

The points of sales scanner was in stores for at least 2 or 3 years at that time.

That shows you how little they knew about life in America. For us it’s citizens. They are in a totally different world than us. I really don’t like picking on these guys bit they are so pickable, if that’s a word. I don’t think they are worth my time or even the paper and ink I waste on them.

Low-lives!. What got me started on them?

I woke up this morning, made my coffee and the turned on my computer while drinking my first cup of the day and randomly choose any of the 20 or 5 non mass media websites I like.

This morning I hit www.blacklistednews.com another superior web site and there it was, the headlines ‘IS YOUR CONGRESS MAN REGISTERED AS A PAID FOREIGN POLICY LOBBYIST FOR ISRAEL?

Those low-lives bastards!. Please go to www.blacklistednews.com  October 6th, they not only list the names of these low-lives but also give the amount of money they got. I don’t think any of their children will shed any tears for these guys. If they do, they will be tears of joy for all the money they are going to inherit if they can figure out which foreign banks they hide their money in.

To my Public Servants:

Try to go out just for 2 or 3 days, something in between your vacations and be a bricklayer and you might understand a little why I feel the way I feel.

Anyway, after reading these headlines I closed my eyes and asked my Best friend Jesus, “Am I going crazy? Why Am I so depressed?”

And he answered loud and clear. “NO, you are not crazy, but you are very depressed because you see the world falling apart and you are worry for your children and their children and all those you love.”

Then I asked ”Jesus are you going to help us out of this mess?”

No answer. Just silence.

Now I’m not only depressed but scared also.

Why should he help, we shut the door on His Face too many times.

Last week the Market broke below its 200 day moving average trend line.  Friday it rallied back to just under the line, as it usually does.

Today, Tuesday 7th it looks like this formation will be confirmed.

You still have time to buy some OEX-Puts or other bearish instruments.

Happy October everyone!. You ain’t seen nothing yet!

I didn’t mean to pick on Bush Senior, he was a military man. A hero in my books but I still have a vivid picture in my mind with a stupid look on his face.

TI, a fellow coworker on Wall St. and a friend I love, thank you for reminding me that “You ain’t seen nothing yet” was a BTO Bachman Turner Overdrive song. It was a favorite group of mine years ago. I didn’t think of the title because there is another part of the same song that I remember more. In fact I often use it in conversation when I disagree with someone and I’ll just say bababababy only twice baba’s, I remember three. The you tube lyrics are wrong I think they say Bababy only twice, two babas I remember three.

Did I tell you that cd’s (music) and DVD’s movies and concerts pirated cost only 4 or 5 soles, that’s like $1.50 to $2 dollars, Imagine. I once sent some to the States and they didn’t work. Most CD and DVD players there have anti pirate devices.

Did you know that 2 years ago the US Treasury Dpt. Voted Peru as producers of the most authentic copy of the US $100 bill?.

Also www.flavorwire.com, a web site I love not only about music, they cover books, films, art and design, has a great write –op on Stevie Nick’s and her new album “24 Karat Gold-Songs from the Vault” I am dying to hear it.

PS I didn’t know I was bad. I just thought I was having fun. Too many stories to tell but here is one thing you might like. Remember all those women who came knocking on my mother’s door complaining about me?

Will I Always had water gun handy, just for the fun of it and I used to fill it up with black or blue ink which was common in those days because we still used fountain pens.

Well I would go and squirt ink on all the windows I could at the houses of the old bitches who ratted on me to my mother.

Do you think that’s bad? I didn’t I thought it was fun they had to pay for a window washer to get them clean.

Don’t you think that’s fun?, yeah you do. I can tell cause’ right now you are laughing.

To my brother Larry

I think you missed one blog where I mention that I’m getting emails complaining about my spelling and grammar. My answer was “I don’t got good spelling and I don’t got good grammar and my wife who is nice enough to type my blog, barely speaks English. Most of the time it’s like the “I love Lucy Show” around here. And I told them if they didn’t like it just don’t fucking read it.

Wish Nancy a Happy Birthday, she knows I hate Birthday and I don’t send cards. Why the fuck would anyone celebrate getting a year older is beyond me. Love you, Nancy.

Jimmy Dritz was one of my bosses at Becker Paribas, you had to love this guy. When he was teaching me the ins and outs of the Risk Arb world and me being new at it I often made mistakes. He never got mad or raised his voice. He would just say. “Frankie, that’s a Cocka maymy spread you put on (spelled wrong) or that’s a Chinese Spread. Next time try it this way”.

But I always think of him this time of year. He had years of experience in Risk Arb at Drexel and Company and he would say, “Frankie at Drexel we always bought on Rosh Hashanah and sold on Yom Kippur”, and every year we lost a few bucks but I can still picture him with his brisk walk running towards my desk while scratching his head and laughing, “Frankie I think we were supposed to sell on Rosh Hashanah and sold on Yom Kippur”. I said “Jimmy it’s your theory you tell me. He would shake his head still laughing and say ah! It’s nebulous” and just walks away.

Nebulous!! that was his favorite word. I’m a laughing now just picturing him. He wasn’t a great stock picker or great at calling the market.

He was just the best Risk Arb guy on the street. He was almost never in a deal that broke, maybe 2 or 3 a year.

That’s a hell of a record!.

Miss you Jim.

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economy

THE BULL TREND AND ACE GREENBERG DIED AT THE SAME TIME.

You will be missed Alan!

Thank God they reinstated the up/tick rule.

Resilience: An ability to recover from or adjust easily to change or misfortune.

Resilient, ah! Resilient the traders would say or a salesman will rush into the trading room, during a busy day and say:

“What should I tell my customers? Did I miss some news? What’s going on? They should be down!

And a trader would say: Resilient, ah resilient.

We all use that word when we didn’t know why the

f—k—g market was up. I wonder if they still use that word. God I love Wall Street!

Several times in the past someone would look at me with strange look on their face, and say to me you have an anfractuous mind. I just see things differently.

Example: One day last week the market moved to new highs on big volume. Everyone says, wow that was a lot of buying!

Just remember for every buyer there is a seller but the market was on the plus side.

I’ll give you that but less than one percent.

Now 100 point move in the 70’s or 80’s meant something.  There were more buyers than sellers but not by much.

To me there was a lot of selling and I think the sellers were the Gnomes of Zurich. Just like that day in August of 1982, the start of the new Bull Market. I think that day the Gnomes were buying also, from my anfractuous mind.

Another twisted thought:

Suppose the plane that was shot down, the MH 17 from Malaysia wasn’t from Malaysia.

Oh! A small country. Not important??. Please 300 lives were lost and the news said the bodies looked as if they were turned inside out. Maybe the pilot did know that he shouldn’t be flying over the war zone but was diverted because of turbulence or a number of other reasons like a mechanical failure or worse a terrorist on board.

Let say it was a flight from the USA or how about China or some other big nation that could strike back.

It seems to me that they pulled the trigger because they feared it was an enemy plane too close to Russia.

Do you really think that the trigger happy guy checked to see where the plane was from before he fired?

I doubt it.

Next week an American plane could be diverted to that area and shot down. I am not trying to build a bearish case because I am looking for a correction; it’s just that I think you gotta be f—k—g crazy to be in this market. The world is coming apart.

I just don’t think you are doing your customer justice by being in this market, and, what about preservation of capital, your customer’s money. Losing it is a lot worse than not making more.

Some of my friends that I advise “the Oracles of Juniper Valley Park” said:

“Frank we are happy you yelled Buy over 4 ½ years ago. It’s the summer time and we have money in our pockets and we can sleep at night but if the market goes a lot higher, we all are coming down to Peru to beat the sh-t out of you.”

OEX story continue

I executed a buy order and bought 10 OEX puts at 2 ½

slightly out of the money. 2 or 3 weeks went by and the market worked its way higher. The options were trading around 1 ¼ – ½.

And I said: “I’m sorry we never talked about paying for the loss if they went down; I’ll pay you back in full”.

She said “I already sold them”

I said “why?”

She answered “I asked some of the analyst here, what should I do?  None of them were sure about which way the market will go except one analyst who said:” Frank is a nice guy but he is only a trader not an analyst, what does he know?”

She graduated from a nice college and was a CFA a certified financial analyst and he was a Columbia grad.

Well I promise you one; two or three lessons would come from the story.

Two weeks later the market was down big on the Thursday and Friday before the weekend. Unusual, in Bull markets Thursday and Fridays are almost always up, confidence disappeared and everyone in our department and the other Trading Departments, all left for the weekend with scared faces.

I said ” Oh Boy! The Yuppies are all going to talk to their friends this weekend and I know their final decision will be to sell everything figuring it’s better to have some money left to play with rather than nothing.

Monday was scary straight down and some salesmen were throwing up by the end of the day, some send their secretaries out to buy cameras to take pictures of the Quotron Screen, the closing prices were frightening. Tuesday there was a selling climax.

In spite of the movie The Wolf of Wall Street, released-I think- at the worst possible time, when the market and economy were struggling to come back, most of us in the business DO CARE about a customer’s money or the firm’s money.

I knew of one young salesman who committed suicide, a specialist on the floor who committed suicide, and a salesman who took a heart attack and died. Oh! And there was a guy in New Jersey who drove to his broker’s Merrill Lynch office nearby and shot him.

The OEX puts bought at 2 ½ for $2,500 dollars eventually traded at a value of $87,500 dollars. I don’t think I would have stay around that long.  But imagine if I bought a 100 or a 1000 puts.

Next blog: “Lessons”

In a CNBC interview  Ace Greenberg said he only wanted PHD’s working around him but he meant poor, hungry and determined!

Te amo Peru, the food here is unbelievable.

 

 

 

 

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