economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, SOTCK MARKET, Uncategorized

SHORT THEM AGAIN, LET´S GO FOR A HAT TRICK

Well they didn´t go to 13,000 yet but I think all the shorts are covered, again. You know you can make 5 to 10 times more, more money; 5 to 10 times faster being short in a Bear Market  than you can being long in a Bull Market.

I said that the first week last June was the start of a new Bear Market and that the next rally after a 2,000-point drop was a Bear Market rally, followed by a 3,000-point drop, and I think this last rally was also a Bear market trap. If it is, the next sell- off could be down 4,000 points, all toll, the shorts will have made 10,000 points on the Dow, but wait till we go to 13,000 Dow.

Remember, in Bull Markets you buy the dips, in Bear Markets you sell the rips. Easy game.

Let´s check our Short list:

OEX Down -120 pts+

PCLN Down – 450 pts

AMZN Up, lost money

IBM Down -50 pts

GOOG Up, lost money

TSLA Down – 180 pts

NFLX Down – 35 pts

AAPL Down – 35 pts

VIX Up 35 pts

I would buy puts on this same list- except AMZN, wait 2 days, they had great earnings- keep in mind when you go short buy puts. Because the most you can lose by buying puts is the price, you paid for the puts.

If you short a stock and it goes up, your loss can be unlimited. If you do short a stock, buy slightly out of money calls, this will limit your loss.

Being naked short you can lose the ranch, really. Ever since options started trading in the mid 1970´s I am shocked whenever I hear someone has lost a bundle of money, there are so many ways to protect yourself with options.

I think the e-mails I got from my readers, kind of sums-up how they are doing.

The first one is scary:

“Hey, Market Call Anastasi, if the Dow doesn’t go to 13,000 like you keep saying, one night you are going to see a few dark vans parked in front of your house and driveway with mean looking guys inside.”

Well, I live in Peru, that´s a long drive.

The next one I should have saved, printed and framed, he says:

“I don’t believe I made $ 500,000 on the 25 puts. I´m giddy laughing, I made a boat full of money on Priceline and I buy a boat, I mean a container ship. It is the first time I ever bought puts or an option.

I felt like that 70-year-old woman from Wisconsin who for the first time in her life, she bought one Lotto quick pick ticket and won the lottery the next day.   Who knows if I had listened to you about the rally only being a Bear Market trap I could have made 300 or 400 points instead of 200 points… Thanks Market Call Anastasi…”

The majority of the e-mails all said they were happy they sold all their stocks in June at the Bull Market top and that they made money buying puts.

As for the mean looking guys in the dark vans:

If you spent more time, reading my blogs maybe you would be driving “Vettes and Vipers” my two favorite cars. Just remember this blog was intended for friends, family and relatives because it´s easier than constantly calling from Peru and Yes. I have a disclaimer; it reads:

“If anyone is dumb enough to listen a poor Italian kid from South Philadelphia, they deserve to lose money”

I won´t get bullish until the Dow breaks 18,200 on the Upside on large volume. The total daily volume of stocks has been declining.

Not a good sign and earnings of companies have been declining. All I see is bad news everywhere.

I keep about 15 market internals every day, 4 times a day. At 10.00, 12.00, 02.00 and 04.00 O´clock, and I will admit some of them are starting to look a little better. If the Dow should break 18,200 on the Upside and only on a large volume, sell your puts fast for whatever they are trading at. I would be shocked if that happens.

Happy Trading!

 

 

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economy

AN OCTOBER BLOOD BATH IS COMING

”You ain’t seen nothing yet”

Marcello Frank Anastasi, No Al Jolson said “You ain’t heard nothing yet” The Jazz Singer.

Does anyone remember October Blood Baths?  I am calling for one now.

They were very common in the 1970’s and 1980’s. I remember seeing traders who were normally strong and calm in face of some really bad days which normally occur during a normal trading year. These same traders would physically shake and have trouble speaking a clear coherent and complete sentence. Believe me when I tell you I saw one young trader actually peeing his pants when the office girl only asked him what he wanted to order for lunch. I also remember him yelling back at her, standing there with tears in his eyes while shaking and peeing and screaming at her “Do you know what the fuck is going on?” She had no idea.

I won’t mention his name because I liked him; he was really a nice guy. Even if I didn’t like him, I wouldn’t mention his name only because the whole fucking thing was not a nice thing to remember.  I think of him every October. It’s one my rare bad memories of Wall Street. He didn’t come to work the next day, or the day after that, or the next either. He did come up to the trading dept. four weeks later to apologize for his behavior on that bad day. He also came to say Good Bye. He was leaving New York. He decided that Real Estate was going to be the next hot industry and he thought the Boom was already starting in California which is where he was going to. Boy! Was he right!.

That was in the late 1970’s I was happy for him, I later heard he ended up doing very well. I want to dedicate this story to all our elected assholes in Wash. DC who never put in a full work day and spend most of their time flying around on some sort of perpetual vacation, paid by hard working Americans.

The only time they stop the vacation is when they have to stop and pick-up a bribe or payoff they earned for passing a pork -belly project or a Bridge to nowhere project. And I’ll bet the really crooked politicians buy cheap Real Estate when they know a bill will be passed. But you know what pisses me off they think the American people don’t know this shit goes on. Shame on you. How come they all retire millionaires? It must be all that over time they put-in during their working careers. Oh! And the buildings in Wash. DC must all have sun tanning bulbs as lights.

Enough, I hate when this mean side of me comes out. but it makes me feel so good, I actually breath better and while we are on the subject of assholes, the MBA’s , Quants and so called pundits. September is not the weakest month of the year. October is. During October blood baths, blood runs in the streets caused by selling panics which usually exhaust themselves by mid-month or later in the month causing a sharp snap-back upward movement and thus showing a not so big % downward end result for the month.

To all those I love, things will get worse before they get better and I said it in my second or third blog. God Loves this great country, we will be back on top again. I also believe God elected every president we had, including Obama. I felt bad during the Bush Gore Election. God had to re-arrange all those hanging chads on the voting cards in Florida. I am a democrat but God put Bush in because he knew Gore would never retaliate the way Bush did. And we would be suffering many terrorist attacks like the Boston Marathon. Am i religious? Do I go to church? All I can say is Jesus is my best friend. Obama’s time to shine will come soon and he will go down in the history books as the President Most Loved by the people.  I loved him from day one. “Be not afraid” my fellow Americans

PS.. No, Flushing Red signals was not a mistake, I meant it. I have never seen all 10 of my indicators go all red (SELL) or all black (BUY) they usually just go to a majority, like 6-7-or 8 out of 10. If I am reading them right, Flushing is the right word. Stocks will tank and flushed right down the toilet.

PS PS Do you remember the movie “Grumpy Old Men? Well I was a lot younger when I saw it. It must be at least 20 years old. When I saw it I said, I hope I’ll never get like that and just laughed. I thought it was so funny. Well guess what, I am worse than that, at times I have no patience and everything annoys me. Then there are times when i get so piss-off I get crazy. I guess I am trying to explain my rage against our political leaders in Wash. DC, but I do notice one good thing about getting old” You care but you really don’t give a shit”

Joan Rivers, no one makes me laugh like you did.!

I will miss you. Her charitable works are unbelievable. Search them on Google.

God Bless you Joan

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WHY ROBIN?

Written AUGUST 12th   4:30 am

You brought so much joy, laughter and sometimes tears to so many people why Robin?

I just could never understand why someone with so much going for them, a great career, money, a beautiful wife and kids. I just don’t know

When my wife and I came into de apartment from an evening out,  I sat on my favorite chair and flipped on the big screen with the computer to check the stock futures on CNN and CNBC, there it was biggest life saying Robin Williams dead at 63 of an apparent suicide.

I sunk back on my chair and the words just came out of my mouth OH no! I don’t believe it! Cecilia my wife said what happened? I told her the news. She said maybe he got a bad medical report.

When I was younger my first wife would hurry and get the kids in bed early so we could watch Mork & Mindy (uninterrupted) all we did was laugh.

I can see why anyone will commit suicide over a lost love, over lost money. I lost everything I had three pieces of real estate, a corvette, a custom van, they were a beautiful house at Rego Park, a beach house near the ocean and a nice apartment in Manhattan. Some of my friends said if I lost of those things I will probably commit suicide. I said I missed them,  these things, but they are only things!

I think if I lost one of my children in a sad way that might make me commit suicide but not things. I think that if  Robin knew how much joy and good feelings he brought to people or if he just knew how much he was loved he would not have done it.

What I can say? …. Nanu nanu…. Shazbot…

Probably I spelled it wrong. I am getting few emails complaining about my spelling and grammar. Let’s put this to rest. I write the article, read it to my wife and the she types it. My wife is a beautiful Peruvian woman inside and out but she barely speaks English. I barely speak Spanish most of the time is like the I LOVE LUCY SHOW around here. I don’t got grammar and I don’t got good spelling and I don’t write anything before.

The longest thing I ever wrote in my life was a writing assignment from my 6th grade teacher, a nun at Saint Rita’s Catholic great school in South Philly. She said Mr. Anastasi tonight you will write 100 times I MUST NOT LAUGH AT THE TEACHER I love all the nun at Saint Rita’s they all are good people but when i saw her white habit which never lay flat on her chest because she was so fat would bounce up and down every time she spoke loud or coughed and this always make me laugh.

Whenever she saw me the only thing she said with an attitude:” Mr. Anastasi you walk around this school like you own the place”  She just didn’t like me. What can I say?

Now ….going back to bussines….

AUGUST 20th WEDNESDAY MORNING

This is what pissing me off I woke up this morning i wnet to my email my home page , it is yahoo naturally i love the stock market so the first I hit is the finance page and the headline is saying about this is a well-known market analyst who says that the Dow could be at 6,000 in the next two or three years.

What I am missing? I don’t see the value in a prediction like this anything could happen in 2 or 3 years.

Did you ever go to a fortune teller? I did once just out of curiosity and one of the things she told me that my constant wish for money well soon come true and she was right I am always wishing for money and almost everybody wishing for money. Three month later I won 50 dollars in a NY lottery.

Was her prediction true? Yes. But was I happy? NO

Another thing she said was that soon I am going to see somebody that I would like to fall in love with.

Well,  I am a leg man and in the winter time when is cold and the girls are wearing heavy coats I would fall in love once a week. In the summer time when the weather is nice I would fall in love once a day, sometimes twice a day because I took the subway to and from work. Both of the fortune teller predictions were correct. Wow. Well they were vague statements. I don’t know maybe is because I was a trader and had to predict every hour of the day which way the market was going for the next hour.

This sort of vague talk is psico bubble to me.

I rather have a guy be able to tell me with some amount of confidence what the market will do in the near term, which is three to six month out, so I can make a decision now.  And if he is wrong my natural tendency is to cut my losses at 10% and try to let my profits run as long as possible.

Example: years ago when I live in Florida we are talking 8 or 10 years ago I said to one of my boys:  “Did you hear about Netflix?  They are going to start home delivery and pick up of movie videos. Netflix was trading at 4 ½ dollars” I forget which son I mentioned it to and he didn’t talk me out of buying Netflix but he did say with a slightly negative attitude that he enjoyed going to Blockbuster or any video store for that matter and enjoyed browsing at all the movies on the shelves. So I said to myself “It is his generation that is going to be doing most of the purchasing at the video stores.”

Needless to say his response was vague. Not a definitive yes or no and the thought process left me without a decision.

I don’t like that indecisive feeling which is why the article stating that the market could go down to 6,000 leaves me undecided.

Does it mean that I should jump in with both feet and buy the market for the next year? And then get out of everything for the next 2 or 3 years?

I don’t know I am confused!

continue……..

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BH, Buy and Hold equals BS, Bullshit

It’s all over. Remember this date. Big correction starting now:  2 p.m. Tuesday afternoon June 24th. Stay in touch for next update. Stock market is not rigged, if it was rigged and it has been going up for the last five years, who would give a shit if it was rigged. Following blogs will explain why psychology is 90% of this game, it has more to do with instinct and market feel, the other 10% to me is useless I will leave that to the MBA’s and Quant guys to argue about. In the next few days we will talk about BH – BS. (Too many black swans) (Bull Markets do die of old age and so do Bear Markets) Love from Peru.

 WHO IS MARCELLO FRANK ANASTASI

Worked  35 years in Wall Street as a Risk Arbitrage Trader at A.G. Backer and Bank Paribas North America, now retired living in Peru but he can’t get the game out of his system because he loved it so much and he still does. Buy Puts sell Calls get out of Stocks and have a nice summer!

“The reason I started this Blog is because just as I called the New Bull Market in August 1982 due to a Business Magazine article which claimed that equities are dead this pissed me off. Today I am just as pissed off because for the third time in as many weeks I have read some jokers saying that the Market is now going to 30,000, 40,000 and even 50,000. If you still believe in BH, Buy and Hold just ask the guy who bought GE at 70 or the guy who bought Sun –Micro Systems at about the same price (60 or 70) and you might hear aloud roar in the room BS. Miss my Kids in the States Talk to you soon! “ M. Frank Anastasi In case you think I am crazy contact me and tell me so at: marcello.anastasi@ymail.com

 

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