economy, INVESTMENT ADVICE, SOTCK MARKET, Uncategorized

SHORT THEM AGAIN, LET´S GO FOR A HAT TRICK

Well they didn´t go to 13,000 yet but I think all the shorts are covered, again. You know you can make 5 to 10 times more, more money; 5 to 10 times faster being short in a Bear Market  than you can being long in a Bull Market.

I said that the first week last June was the start of a new Bear Market and that the next rally after a 2,000-point drop was a Bear Market rally, followed by a 3,000-point drop, and I think this last rally was also a Bear market trap. If it is, the next sell- off could be down 4,000 points, all toll, the shorts will have made 10,000 points on the Dow, but wait till we go to 13,000 Dow.

Remember, in Bull Markets you buy the dips, in Bear Markets you sell the rips. Easy game.

Let´s check our Short list:

OEX Down -120 pts+

PCLN Down – 450 pts

AMZN Up, lost money

IBM Down -50 pts

GOOG Up, lost money

TSLA Down – 180 pts

NFLX Down – 35 pts

AAPL Down – 35 pts

VIX Up 35 pts

I would buy puts on this same list- except AMZN, wait 2 days, they had great earnings- keep in mind when you go short buy puts. Because the most you can lose by buying puts is the price, you paid for the puts.

If you short a stock and it goes up, your loss can be unlimited. If you do short a stock, buy slightly out of money calls, this will limit your loss.

Being naked short you can lose the ranch, really. Ever since options started trading in the mid 1970´s I am shocked whenever I hear someone has lost a bundle of money, there are so many ways to protect yourself with options.

I think the e-mails I got from my readers, kind of sums-up how they are doing.

The first one is scary:

“Hey, Market Call Anastasi, if the Dow doesn’t go to 13,000 like you keep saying, one night you are going to see a few dark vans parked in front of your house and driveway with mean looking guys inside.”

Well, I live in Peru, that´s a long drive.

The next one I should have saved, printed and framed, he says:

“I don’t believe I made $ 500,000 on the 25 puts. I´m giddy laughing, I made a boat full of money on Priceline and I buy a boat, I mean a container ship. It is the first time I ever bought puts or an option.

I felt like that 70-year-old woman from Wisconsin who for the first time in her life, she bought one Lotto quick pick ticket and won the lottery the next day.   Who knows if I had listened to you about the rally only being a Bear Market trap I could have made 300 or 400 points instead of 200 points… Thanks Market Call Anastasi…”

The majority of the e-mails all said they were happy they sold all their stocks in June at the Bull Market top and that they made money buying puts.

As for the mean looking guys in the dark vans:

If you spent more time, reading my blogs maybe you would be driving “Vettes and Vipers” my two favorite cars. Just remember this blog was intended for friends, family and relatives because it´s easier than constantly calling from Peru and Yes. I have a disclaimer; it reads:

“If anyone is dumb enough to listen a poor Italian kid from South Philadelphia, they deserve to lose money”

I won´t get bullish until the Dow breaks 18,200 on the Upside on large volume. The total daily volume of stocks has been declining.

Not a good sign and earnings of companies have been declining. All I see is bad news everywhere.

I keep about 15 market internals every day, 4 times a day. At 10.00, 12.00, 02.00 and 04.00 O´clock, and I will admit some of them are starting to look a little better. If the Dow should break 18,200 on the Upside and only on a large volume, sell your puts fast for whatever they are trading at. I would be shocked if that happens.

Happy Trading!

 

 

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economy

IT’S ALL OVER, CEPT THE SHOUTING.

It’s not over until the fat lady sings. Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs make nothing or as some people say, pigs get slaughtered.

God! I love Wall Street.

If you are a young guy or just graduated go to Wall St. I think it’s an exciting business. I am sure there are other jobs more exciting for example I always love music, I wanted to be a song writer or a great rock drummer who sings. The point is I never had a boring day in Wall St., I had some bad days but never a boring day which leads me to my next point:

In this week headlines there were two items that call my attention

First one said “Wall St. scrambling to hire young bankers”, that’s something you usually hear at market tops and they are heavy at laying off people near bottoms.

“I only know what I read” said Mark Twain I think.

My firm AG Becker tried very hard to keep everybody on, even in the worst times.

Hey! They kept me for twenty five years. I remember one market down turn; they close the OTC Trading Department, my department but offer everyone a spot in other departments that were at least surviving. I accepted the job on the floor of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) for about nine months as Specialist Assistant, where it became clear to me that the Specialist System was and is still the best system. It wasn’t perfect – by no means- but all orders buy and sell, went to the same location: the specialist on the floor of the exchange.

Anyway after 8 or 9 months they re-opened the OTC Trading Dpt. upstairs in the New York office as promised but I came back feeling that the Specialist System with one market maker was superior to the OTC Trading System with many market makers, which intern has led to all these computer trading offshoots that we have today.

The other news item that bothers me was a news film clip on “The decaying shopping malls in America”. I do believe the economy is coming back, but slowly and I know the USA will rise to the top again. We always did and will do in the future because this country always had God on its side.

The market always anticipates what will happen three to six months from now, but decaying malls and Dow 16,950 where I finally screamed sell is more than three to six months away.

It seems like the bulls are high on something, they just refuse to see what’s going on here in America and the rest of the world. I don’t know what will take us to the “Tipping Point” – a good book- and cause the correction I believe is coming.

I hope it’s not a Black Swam- also a good book- which is something that is already out there but appears at best to be manageable. Then when you least expected, it blows up in your face. There are too many Black Swams out there and all of them are potential disasters.

Wait a minute… I just heard the bread girl hang the bag of fresh rolls on the door knob. It remains me of my home town where I grew up. South Philly,(Philadelphia) where fresh bread, milk, butter, cakes and donuts were delivered every day 60 years or more ago. Just one of the many reasons I love Peru.

Te amo Peru

PS About 10 am this morning I hit Yahoo to check the news and my emails and the headline read: Putin is in Cuba with the Castro brothers for a visit and is for giving them a $30 billion debt.

This bothers me maybe because I remember just finishing army basic training at Fort Knox Kentucky when we were told the Fort was put on alert.

I am not sure it was Cuban missile crisis, I was never that good at World History, but I do remember Russia and Cuba mentioned in the same sentence.

PS-PS Can you do a Ps-Ps??

RIP Tommy Ramone

Strange days indeed!

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economy

BH, Buy and Hold equals BS, Bullshit

It’s all over. Remember this date. Big correction starting now:  2 p.m. Tuesday afternoon June 24th. Stay in touch for next update. Stock market is not rigged, if it was rigged and it has been going up for the last five years, who would give a shit if it was rigged. Following blogs will explain why psychology is 90% of this game, it has more to do with instinct and market feel, the other 10% to me is useless I will leave that to the MBA’s and Quant guys to argue about. In the next few days we will talk about BH – BS. (Too many black swans) (Bull Markets do die of old age and so do Bear Markets) Love from Peru.

 WHO IS MARCELLO FRANK ANASTASI

Worked  35 years in Wall Street as a Risk Arbitrage Trader at A.G. Backer and Bank Paribas North America, now retired living in Peru but he can’t get the game out of his system because he loved it so much and he still does. Buy Puts sell Calls get out of Stocks and have a nice summer!

“The reason I started this Blog is because just as I called the New Bull Market in August 1982 due to a Business Magazine article which claimed that equities are dead this pissed me off. Today I am just as pissed off because for the third time in as many weeks I have read some jokers saying that the Market is now going to 30,000, 40,000 and even 50,000. If you still believe in BH, Buy and Hold just ask the guy who bought GE at 70 or the guy who bought Sun –Micro Systems at about the same price (60 or 70) and you might hear aloud roar in the room BS. Miss my Kids in the States Talk to you soon! “ M. Frank Anastasi In case you think I am crazy contact me and tell me so at: marcello.anastasi@ymail.com

 

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