economy

IT’S ALL OVER, CEPT THE SHOUTING.

It’s not over until the fat lady sings. Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs make nothing or as some people say, pigs get slaughtered.

God! I love Wall Street.

If you are a young guy or just graduated go to Wall St. I think it’s an exciting business. I am sure there are other jobs more exciting for example I always love music, I wanted to be a song writer or a great rock drummer who sings. The point is I never had a boring day in Wall St., I had some bad days but never a boring day which leads me to my next point:

In this week headlines there were two items that call my attention

First one said “Wall St. scrambling to hire young bankers”, that’s something you usually hear at market tops and they are heavy at laying off people near bottoms.

“I only know what I read” said Mark Twain I think.

My firm AG Becker tried very hard to keep everybody on, even in the worst times.

Hey! They kept me for twenty five years. I remember one market down turn; they close the OTC Trading Department, my department but offer everyone a spot in other departments that were at least surviving. I accepted the job on the floor of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) for about nine months as Specialist Assistant, where it became clear to me that the Specialist System was and is still the best system. It wasn’t perfect – by no means- but all orders buy and sell, went to the same location: the specialist on the floor of the exchange.

Anyway after 8 or 9 months they re-opened the OTC Trading Dpt. upstairs in the New York office as promised but I came back feeling that the Specialist System with one market maker was superior to the OTC Trading System with many market makers, which intern has led to all these computer trading offshoots that we have today.

The other news item that bothers me was a news film clip on “The decaying shopping malls in America”. I do believe the economy is coming back, but slowly and I know the USA will rise to the top again. We always did and will do in the future because this country always had God on its side.

The market always anticipates what will happen three to six months from now, but decaying malls and Dow 16,950 where I finally screamed sell is more than three to six months away.

It seems like the bulls are high on something, they just refuse to see what’s going on here in America and the rest of the world. I don’t know what will take us to the “Tipping Point” – a good book- and cause the correction I believe is coming.

I hope it’s not a Black Swam- also a good book- which is something that is already out there but appears at best to be manageable. Then when you least expected, it blows up in your face. There are too many Black Swams out there and all of them are potential disasters.

Wait a minute… I just heard the bread girl hang the bag of fresh rolls on the door knob. It remains me of my home town where I grew up. South Philly,(Philadelphia) where fresh bread, milk, butter, cakes and donuts were delivered every day 60 years or more ago. Just one of the many reasons I love Peru.

Te amo Peru

PS About 10 am this morning I hit Yahoo to check the news and my emails and the headline read: Putin is in Cuba with the Castro brothers for a visit and is for giving them a $30 billion debt.

This bothers me maybe because I remember just finishing army basic training at Fort Knox Kentucky when we were told the Fort was put on alert.

I am not sure it was Cuban missile crisis, I was never that good at World History, but I do remember Russia and Cuba mentioned in the same sentence.

PS-PS Can you do a Ps-Ps??

RIP Tommy Ramone

Strange days indeed!

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One thought on “IT’S ALL OVER, CEPT THE SHOUTING.

  1. Thomas Isenberg says:

    Very nice, Frank.  Wall Street frenzied hiring and consumer shopping cutbacks and lethargy are certainly top indicators, the former from Wall St. and the latter from Main Street.

    A few spelling errors:  “intern”:  I think you mean “in turn,” unless you are still talking about the new hires on Wall St. who are often called “interns.”  Too bad they don’t want to hire us back, then maybe a crash could be avoided instead of crazy trading by people who’ve never even seen a correction, let alone a crash.

    Second, you talk about black “swams.”  Unless a “swam” is kind of animal down in Peru, the book and what it’s about are black “swans.”  Most people love swans and most swans are white and everyone is happy, then a black swan appears and ruins all the fun, kind of like what some people call the “black sheep” of the family.

    Best to Celia and the young’uns.  I saw The Ramones in 1976 in my College on campus club (called “A Little Night’s Music”).  I was sitting about 15 feet in front of the stage, front and center.  Naturally, they blew me away and we all stayed for the second set late show. We had never seen or heard anything like that before.

    ________________________________

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